2018 · Week 1

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

12·18

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 81°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

44.5

Model margin

+0.9est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapEagles
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.037
  • 46.6%Success rate46.2%
  • +0.200EPA / dropback+0.110
  • -0.160EPA / rush-0.097
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +4.21CPOE+5.11
  • 45.1%Third-down rate40.4%
  • 72.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
  • 2.34Points / drive2.01
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL
2011 · W2PHI @ ATL31–35ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PHI
ATLQ1 15:001078Turnover on downs0–0
PHIQ1 10:5136Punt0–0
ATLQ1 9:08937Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 5:016-6Punt3–0
ATLQ1 0:303-9Punt3–0
PHIQ2 14:121554Field goal3–3
ATLQ2 6:09726Field goal6–3
PHIQ2 2:08611Punt6–3
ATLQ2 1:20420Punt6–3
PHIQ2 0:3344End of half6–3
PHIQ3 15:00612Punt6–3
ATLQ3 12:25518Punt6–3
PHIQ3 10:111163Touchdown6–10
ATLQ3 4:37415Punt6–10
PHIQ3 2:3234Punt6–10
ATLQ3 1:1934Punt6–10
ATLQ3 0:20612Turnover6–10
PHIQ4 12:58425Turnover6–10
ATLQ4 10:35227Touchdown12–10
PHIQ4 9:4846Punt12–10
ATLQ4 7:3346Punt12–10
PHIQ4 4:51854Touchdown12–18
ATLQ4 2:191365End of half12–18

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan21/4325101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman6366.00
Tevin Coleman9192.11
Julio Jones11111.00
Matt Ryan284.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones10191690
Tevin Coleman12260
Austin Hooper34240
Mohamed Sanu46180
Devonta Freeman35140
Eric Saubert0100
Calvin Ridley0200

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles19/3411701
Nelson Agholor1/11500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi15624.12
Corey Clement5265.20
Nelson Agholor11616.00
Darren Sproles5102.00
Nick Foles1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz510480
Nelson Agholor810330
Darren Sproles47220
Nick Foles11150
DeAndre Carter11100
Dallas Goedert1340
Mike Wallace0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.3%2.8%7.2%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

51.6%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.33
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.94