Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
44.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.037
- 46.6%Success rate46.2%
- +0.200EPA / dropback+0.110
- -0.160EPA / rush-0.097
- 9.6%Explosive rate8.9%
- +4.21CPOE+5.11
- 45.1%Third-down rate40.4%
- 72.2%Red-zone TD rate62.6%
- 2.34Points / drive2.01
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 21/43 | 251 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 6 | 36 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Julio Jones | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 8 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 10 | 19 | 169 | 0 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 3 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Eric Saubert | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Calvin Ridley | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 19/34 | 117 | 0 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1/1 | 15 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 15 | 62 | 4.1 | 2 |
| Corey Clement | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 5 | 10 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 5 | 10 | 48 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 8 | 10 | 33 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 7 | 22 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| DeAndre Carter | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Dallas Goedert | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.6%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.47
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-0.33
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.94