2017 · DIV

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

10·15

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Nick Foles

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 32°F · wind 16mph

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

Total

40

Model margin

+1.6est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapEagles
  • +0.047EPA / play+0.051
  • 45.0%Success rate43.3%
  • +0.185EPA / dropback+0.144
  • -0.152EPA / rush-0.093
  • 9.7%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +2.96CPOE+0.38
  • 44.1%Third-down rate42.0%
  • 57.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
  • 2.02Points / drive2.12
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL
2011 · W2PHI @ ATL31–35ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0026Turnover0–0
ATLQ1 14:361059Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 9:04820Punt3–0
ATLQ1 5:09543Punt3–0
PHIQ1 2:121486Touchdown3–6
ATLQ2 10:28527Punt3–6
ATLQ2 7:3164Touchdown10–6
PHIQ2 5:41616Punt10–6
ATLQ2 2:08530Punt10–6
PHIQ2 0:46442Field goal10–9
ATLQ3 15:0034Punt10–9
PHIQ3 13:1538Punt10–9
ATLQ3 11:081137Punt10–9
PHIQ3 5:531174Field goal10–12
ATLQ3 0:1133Punt10–12
PHIQ4 13:591380Field goal10–15
ATLQ4 6:021474Turnover on downs10–15
PHIQ4 0:5815End of half10–15

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan22/3621010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Tevin Coleman10797.90
Devonta Freeman1070.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones9161010
Mohamed Sanu35500
Devonta Freeman55261
Tevin Coleman11140
Levine Toilolo12120
Taylor Gabriel2340
Austin Hooper1130
Nick Williams0100
Justin Hardy0100
Terron Ward0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles23/3024600

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jay Ajayi15543.60
Nelson Agholor22010.00
LeGarrette Blount9192.11
Corey Clement155.00
Nick Foles5-2-0.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Alshon Jeffery45610
Jay Ajayi35440
Torrey Smith34390
Zach Ertz35320
Corey Clement55310
Nelson Agholor33240
Mack Hollins1190
Brent Celek1160
Trey Burton0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.2%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.07%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.3%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.44
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+1.58