Closing spread
ATL -2.5
Total
40
Model margin
+1.6est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.047EPA / play+0.051
- 45.0%Success rate43.3%
- +0.185EPA / dropback+0.144
- -0.152EPA / rush-0.093
- 9.7%Explosive rate8.9%
- +2.96CPOE+0.38
- 44.1%Third-down rate42.0%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate63.8%
- 2.02Points / drive2.12
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 22/36 | 210 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tevin Coleman | 10 | 79 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 10 | 7 | 0.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 9 | 16 | 101 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 5 | 5 | 26 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 23/30 | 246 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Ajayi | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 9 | 19 | 2.1 | 1 |
| Corey Clement | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alshon Jeffery | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Jay Ajayi | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Corey Clement | 5 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Trey Burton | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.07%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.3%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.79
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment-1.44
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+1.58