Closing spread
PHI -2
Total
48.5
Model margin
-2.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.196EPA / play-0.017
- 49.5%Success rate43.8%
- +0.323EPA / dropback+0.046
- +0.001EPA / rush-0.121
- 11.2%Explosive rate8.2%
- +6.59CPOE-0.81
- 43.7%Third-down rate38.3%
- 68.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
- 2.93Points / drive1.86
- 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 18/33 | 267 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 10 | 16 | 135 | 0 |
| Taylor Gabriel | 1 | 5 | 76 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 3 | 32 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Aldrick Robinson | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/36 | 231 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Mathews | 19 | 109 | 5.7 | 2 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 10 | 73 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 10 | 57 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 6 | 7 | 55 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 2 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 2 | 5 | 7 | 0 |
| Wendell Smallwood | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.6%
Expected total
45.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.54
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-2.04