2016 · Week 10

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

15·24

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

PHI -2

Total

48.5

Model margin

-2.0est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapEagles
  • +0.196EPA / play-0.017
  • 49.5%Success rate43.8%
  • +0.323EPA / dropback+0.046
  • +0.001EPA / rush-0.121
  • 11.2%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +6.59CPOE-0.81
  • 43.7%Third-down rate38.3%
  • 68.3%Red-zone TD rate59.4%
  • 2.93Points / drive1.86
  • 1.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL
2011 · W2PHI @ ATL31–35ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–PHI
ATLQ1 15:00518Punt0–0
PHIQ1 11:311286Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 4:17312Punt0–7
PHIQ1 2:37852Missed field goal0–7
ATLQ2 12:40546Field goal3–7
PHIQ2 9:36311Punt3–7
ATLQ2 7:35850Field goal6–7
PHIQ2 2:59539Turnover6–7
ATLQ2 1:2737Missed field goal6–7
PHIQ2 0:2549Turnover on downs6–7
ATLQ2 0:0310End of half6–7
PHIQ3 15:001385Field goal6–10
ATLQ3 8:16747Field goal9–10
PHIQ3 4:46964Field goal9–13
ATLQ4 13:50275Touchdown15–13
PHIQ4 13:15514Missed field goal15–13
ATLQ4 10:4630Punt15–13
PHIQ4 10:251055Touchdown15–21
ATLQ4 6:49517Punt15–21
PHIQ4 5:2539Punt15–21
ATLQ4 3:55515Turnover on downs15–21
PHIQ4 2:1938Field goal15–24
ATLQ4 1:57316Turnover15–24
PHIQ4 1:2700End of half15–24

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan18/3326711

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman12494.10
Terron Ward1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones10161350
Taylor Gabriel15761
Devonta Freeman33320
Mohamed Sanu22140
Austin Hooper1380
Aldrick Robinson1120
Terron Ward0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/3623100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ryan Mathews191095.72
Wendell Smallwood13705.40
Darren Sproles2199.50
Carson Wentz4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews610730
Darren Sproles810570
Zach Ertz67550
Ryan Mathews22300
Brent Celek1190
Nelson Agholor2570
Wendell Smallwood0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.6%

Expected total

45.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.54
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-2.04