Closing spread
PHI -5.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+4.7est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.041EPA / play+0.111
- 48.4%Success rate45.2%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.165
- -0.015EPA / rush+0.056
- 9.7%Explosive rate10.7%
- -0.01CPOE+6.20
- 39.1%Third-down rate42.4%
- 56.8%Red-zone TD rate64.1%
- 2.10Points / drive2.46
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. PHI are 11-6-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 20/29 | 241 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 14 | 97 | 6.9 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 9 | 53 | 5.9 | 0 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 7 | 88 | 1 |
| Drake London | 6 | 7 | 54 | 1 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Bijan Robinson | 4 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Kyle Pitts | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | 23/30 | 183 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saquon Barkley | 22 | 95 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jalen Hurts | 13 | 85 | 6.5 | 1 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeVonta Smith | 7 | 10 | 76 | 1 |
| Dallas Goedert | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Britain Covey | 6 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| Saquon Barkley | 4 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Grant Calcaterra | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Jahan Dotson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Johnny Wilson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.83
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.16
- Expected margin+4.70