2019 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Carson Wentz

20·24

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Mercedes-Benz Stadium · open · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -1

Total

53

Model margin

+0.7est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapFalcons
  • +0.004EPA / play+0.014
  • 44.9%Success rate44.5%
  • +0.069EPA / dropback+0.089
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.159
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
  • -1.01CPOE+2.32
  • 45.1%Third-down rate41.8%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
  • 2.01Points / drive2.01
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL
2011 · W2PHI @ ATL31–35ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ATL
ATLQ1 15:001043Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 9:28616Punt0–3
ATLQ1 6:13622Punt0–3
PHIQ1 3:41512Turnover0–3
ATLQ1 1:3630Punt0–3
PHIQ1 0:30827Field goal3–3
ATLQ2 10:45953Missed field goal3–3
PHIQ2 7:4210Turnover3–3
ATLQ2 7:27570Touchdown3–10
PHIQ2 4:56912Punt3–10
ATLQ2 1:33419Turnover3–10
PHIQ2 0:43828Field goal6–10
PHIQ3 15:0000Touchdown6–10
ATLQ3 14:51333Touchdown6–17
PHIQ3 13:23723Punt6–17
ATLQ3 9:5245Turnover6–17
PHIQ3 8:05627Touchdown12–17
ATLQ3 4:57962Turnover12–17
PHIQ3 0:123-1Punt12–17
ATLQ4 13:413-9Punt12–17
PHIQ4 11:421483Touchdown20–17
ATLQ4 3:13670Touchdown20–24
PHIQ4 2:101159Turnover on downs20–24
ATLQ4 0:3000End of half20–24

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Wentz25/4323112
Josh McCown3/52400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Miles Sanders10282.80
Jordan Howard8182.30
Carson Wentz331.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nelson Agholor8111071
Zach Ertz816720
Mack Hollins58500
Miles Sanders3490
Jordan Howard1180
Darren Sproles2350
J.J. Arcega-Whiteside1440

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan27/4332033

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Ito Smith4328.00
Devonta Freeman11222.00
Matt Ryan231.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones5101062
Calvin Ridley8101051
Devonta Freeman34420
Austin Hooper46340
Mohamed Sanu47160
Ito Smith23130
Luke Stocker1140
Justin Hardy0100
Russell Gage0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.65