Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
53
Model margin
+0.7est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Falcons
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.014
- 44.9%Success rate44.5%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.089
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.159
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.4%
- -1.01CPOE+2.32
- 45.1%Third-down rate41.8%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate58.7%
- 2.01Points / drive2.01
- 1.7%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Wentz | 25/43 | 231 | 1 | 2 |
| Josh McCown | 3/5 | 24 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Sanders | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 8 | 18 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Carson Wentz | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Agholor | 8 | 11 | 107 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 8 | 16 | 72 | 0 |
| Mack Hollins | 5 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 3 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jordan Howard | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| J.J. Arcega-Whiteside | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 27/43 | 320 | 3 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ito Smith | 4 | 32 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 11 | 22 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 5 | 10 | 106 | 2 |
| Calvin Ridley | 8 | 10 | 105 | 1 |
| Devonta Freeman | 3 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Austin Hooper | 4 | 6 | 34 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 4 | 7 | 16 | 0 |
| Ito Smith | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Luke Stocker | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Justin Hardy | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.09
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.65