Closing spread
HOU -6
Total
38
Model margin
+4.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Browns
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.197EPA / play-0.062
- 38.3%Success rate43.2%
- -0.178EPA / dropback-0.069
- -0.231EPA / rush-0.052
- 6.4%Explosive rate6.8%
- +3.75CPOE+4.14
- 34.0%Third-down rate38.7%
- 50.2%Red-zone TD rate64.6%
- 1.01Points / drive1.41
- 4.2%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
HOU lead 8–7 since 1999
Meetings average 39.9 points. HOU are 10-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Browns
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Frye | 25/34 | 187 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 19 | 83 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Charlie Frye | 5 | 36 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Braylon Edwards | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Josh Cribbs | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jerome Harrison | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 9/15 | 86 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Taylor | 20 | 99 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Wali Lundy | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| David Carr | 5 | -8 | -1.6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Browns.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.6%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.71