Closing spread
DAL -13.5
Total
45.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Lions
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.112EPA / play+0.072
- 42.6%Success rate45.5%
- -0.057EPA / dropback+0.143
- -0.242EPA / rush-0.024
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.8%
- +0.25CPOE+3.73
- 33.0%Third-down rate49.3%
- 53.4%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.48Points / drive2.18
- 3.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 11–7 since 1999
DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DET–DAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 36 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| DAL | Q1 11:08 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DET | Q1 9:39 | 9 | 29 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| DAL | Q1 5:13 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–0 |
| DET | Q1 4:11 | 4 | 31 | Touchdown | 13–0 |
| DAL | Q1 2:37 | 11 | 54 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| DET | Q2 11:38 | 5 | 20 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| DAL | Q2 9:03 | 11 | 70 | Touchdown | 13–14 |
| DET | Q2 2:48 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–14 |
| DET | Q2 1:01 | 7 | 40 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| DAL | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–14 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 54 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| DET | Q3 13:07 | 3 | -3 | Opp touchdown | 20–21 |
| DET | Q3 12:16 | 12 | 69 | Field goal | 23–21 |
| DAL | Q3 6:06 | 2 | 1 | Turnover | 23–21 |
| DET | Q3 5:15 | 3 | 33 | Touchdown | 30–21 |
| DAL | Q3 4:16 | 8 | 31 | Field goal | 30–24 |
| DET | Q3 0:04 | 8 | 31 | Punt | 30–24 |
| DAL | Q4 11:13 | 5 | 99 | Touchdown | 30–31 |
| DET | Q4 8:09 | 8 | 72 | Touchdown | 36–31 |
| DAL | Q4 4:24 | 1 | -6 | Turnover | 36–31 |
| DET | Q4 4:07 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 39–31 |
| DAL | Q4 2:58 | 12 | 63 | Turnover on downs | 39–31 |
| DET | Q4 0:09 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 39–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 28/42 | 306 | 4 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aveion Cason | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Arlen Harris | 10 | 29 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 5 | 25 | 5.0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 23/32 | 321 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 10 | 27 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 7 | 15 | 2.1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.
Half-point at risk
2.91%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.35