2006 · Week 17

Final

Lions

Detroit

QB Jon Kitna

39·31

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

Texas Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 45°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -13.5

Total

45.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Lions

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsLions wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Lionsedge mapCowboys
  • -0.112EPA / play+0.072
  • 42.6%Success rate45.5%
  • -0.057EPA / dropback+0.143
  • -0.242EPA / rush-0.024
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +0.25CPOE+3.73
  • 33.0%Third-down rate49.3%
  • 53.4%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.48Points / drive2.18
  • 3.9%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 11–7 since 1999

DET have won 2 straight. Meetings average 49.3 points. DAL are 9-9 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DAL @ DET30–44DET
2024 · W6DET @ DAL47–9DET
2023 · W17DET @ DAL19–20DAL
2022 · W7DET @ DAL6–24DAL
2019 · W11DAL @ DET35–27DAL
2018 · W4DET @ DAL24–26DAL
2016 · W16DET @ DAL21–42DAL
2014 · playoffsDET @ DAL20–24DAL

Box score

Individual performances

Lions

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jon Kitna28/4230641

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Aveion Cason10313.10
Arlen Harris10292.90
Jon Kitna5255.00

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo23/3232121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Julius Jones10272.70
Tony Romo4164.00
Marion Barber7152.11

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Lions.

Half-point at risk

2.91%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.7%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.35