Closing spread
KC -1
Total
36.5
Model margin
-3.5est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.011EPA / play-0.009
- 42.5%Success rate41.1%
- -0.026EPA / dropback+0.031
- +0.053EPA / rush-0.050
- 10.6%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.26CPOE+3.07
- 39.0%Third-down rate41.1%
- 61.4%Red-zone TD rate57.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.66
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 10–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.2 points. KC are 8-6-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:53 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| JAX | Q1 10:17 | 3 | 7 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 9:10 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 8:42 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–7 |
| JAX | Q1 5:00 | 9 | 83 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| KC | Q2 14:06 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–7 |
| JAX | Q2 13:01 | 5 | 28 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| KC | Q2 9:59 | 6 | 48 | Touchdown | 10–14 |
| JAX | Q2 7:09 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 10–14 |
| KC | Q2 4:30 | 6 | 72 | Touchdown | 10–21 |
| JAX | Q2 1:52 | 8 | 61 | End of half | 10–21 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 10–21 |
| JAX | Q3 12:57 | 2 | 4 | Turnover | 10–27 |
| KC | Q3 12:12 | 1 | 2 | Touchdown | 10–28 |
| JAX | Q3 12:08 | 5 | 64 | Touchdown | 17–28 |
| KC | Q3 9:31 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 17–35 |
| JAX | Q3 7:04 | 8 | 69 | Touchdown | 24–35 |
| KC | Q3 3:00 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 24–35 |
| JAX | Q3 1:40 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 24–35 |
| KC | Q3 0:18 | 7 | 49 | Punt | 24–35 |
| JAX | Q4 11:43 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 24–35 |
| KC | Q4 10:25 | 6 | 28 | Turnover | 24–35 |
| JAX | Q4 7:07 | 9 | 34 | Touchdown | 30–35 |
| KC | Q4 5:00 | 11 | 41 | End of half | 30–35 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quinn Gray | 13/22 | 166 | 0 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 10/18 | 140 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 12 | 46 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Fred Taylor | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Quinn Gray | 2 | 26 | 13.0 | 2 |
| David Garrard | 1 | 15 | 15.0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 14/21 | 181 | 1 | 2 |
| Damon Huard | 2/3 | 54 | 0 | 0 |
| Larry Johnson | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 33 | 138 | 4.2 | 3 |
| Trent Green | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
2.06%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.90
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-5.21
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-3.47