Closing spread
IND -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.153
- 41.6%Success rate51.4%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.62CPOE+4.70
- 37.7%Third-down rate56.7%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.19Points / drive2.54
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIA–IND |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IND | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 14:36 | 12 | 53 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| IND | Q1 7:49 | 19 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 12:40 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 3–7 |
| IND | Q2 11:09 | 9 | 31 | Punt | 3–7 |
| MIA | Q2 7:16 | 10 | 69 | Field goal | 6–7 |
| IND | Q2 1:31 | 7 | 80 | Touchdown | 6–14 |
| MIA | Q2 0:19 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–14 |
| IND | Q2 0:06 | 1 | 9 | Field goal | 6–17 |
| MIA | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 51 | Field goal | 9–17 |
| IND | Q3 13:17 | 12 | 64 | Field goal | 9–20 |
| MIA | Q3 7:37 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 12–20 |
| IND | Q3 2:11 | 4 | 0 | Punt | 12–20 |
| MIA | Q3 0:48 | 8 | 28 | Field goal | 15–20 |
| IND | Q4 12:38 | 5 | 85 | Touchdown | 15–27 |
| MIA | Q4 10:07 | 7 | 10 | Punt | 15–27 |
| IND | Q4 7:53 | 6 | 34 | Turnover | 15–27 |
| MIA | Q4 4:31 | 4 | 44 | Touchdown | 22–27 |
| IND | Q4 3:11 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 22–27 |
| MIA | Q4 1:03 | 6 | 37 | End of half | 22–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 18/36 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 21 | 115 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/37 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.59
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.51