Closing spread
IND -9.5
Total
44
Model margin
+2.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Colts
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.103EPA / play+0.153
- 41.6%Success rate51.4%
- -0.081EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.139EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.8%
- -1.62CPOE+4.70
- 37.7%Third-down rate56.7%
- 45.8%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.19Points / drive2.54
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 11–8 since 1999
IND have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. IND are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Lemon | 18/36 | 210 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ronnie Brown | 21 | 115 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Sammy Morris | 2 | 19 | 9.5 | 0 |
| Cleo Lemon | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Chris Chambers | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 22/37 | 282 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 21 | 64 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 9 | 42 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
3.01%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.46
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-1.59
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+2.51