2006 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 48°F · wind 7mph
Closing spread
NYG -1
Total
43
Model margin
+1.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Commanders
- Giants
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.017EPA / play-0.006
- 45.6%Success rate40.9%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.034
- -0.017EPA / rush-0.052
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- -3.95CPOE-2.46
- 38.8%Third-down rate38.5%
- 62.8%Red-zone TD rate52.5%
- 1.77Points / drive1.58
- 2.5%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. WAS are 24-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 12/26 | 101 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiki Barber | 23 | 234 | 10.2 | 3 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Jared Lorenzen | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 21/31 | 220 | 2 | 1 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 48 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladell Betts | 20 | 92 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 3 | 30 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Mark Brunell | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mike Sellers | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| T.J. Duckett | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Giants.
Half-point at risk
2.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.9%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.13
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment-0.38
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.06