Closing spread
NYJ -10
Total
34
Model margin
+2.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 12–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 46.4 points. NYJ are 8-10-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–NYJ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 12:57 | 4 | -10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:53 | 3 | 13 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 9:19 | 8 | 42 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 4:54 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NYJ | Q1 2:10 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 0:41 | 9 | 31 | Field goal | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 10:36 | 9 | 27 | Punt | 3–7 |
| LV | Q2 4:57 | 5 | 32 | Punt | 3–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:58 | 9 | 47 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 12 | 73 | Field goal | 3–13 |
| LV | Q3 7:45 | 7 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 3–13 |
| NYJ | Q3 3:48 | 11 | 51 | Touchdown | 3–20 |
| LV | Q4 13:37 | 1 | -7 | Turnover | 3–20 |
| NYJ | Q4 13:23 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 3–23 |
| LV | Q4 11:43 | 4 | 17 | Turnover | 3–23 |
| NYJ | Q4 10:12 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 3–23 |
| LV | Q4 8:06 | 13 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 3–23 |
| NYJ | Q4 5:05 | 6 | 25 | End of half | 3–23 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/30 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Cedric Houston | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+2.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.