Closing spread
NYJ -10
Total
34
Model margin
+2.9est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jets
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
OAK lead 11–8 since 1999
RAIDERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.1 points. NYJ are 8-9-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 22/30 | 157 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Washington | 15 | 53 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Cedric Houston | 16 | 44 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 2 | 23 | 11.5 | 0 |
| Chad Pennington | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
3.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
43.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.48
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.16
- Expected margin+2.88
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.