Closing spread
CIN -6
Total
45
Model margin
+1.3est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
3.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.004EPA / play+0.044
- 43.1%Success rate45.3%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.138
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.085
- 9.2%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.04CPOE+5.38
- 43.2%Third-down rate36.8%
- 48.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.68Points / drive1.98
- 3.3%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 19/28 | 280 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 37 | 134 | 3.6 | 2 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Najeh Davenport | 3 | 27 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/38 | 251 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rudi Johnson | 13 | 47 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 2 | -3 | -1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
3.03%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.25
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.32