Closing spread
STL -1
Total
43
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 8–6 since 1999
RAMS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 53.3 points. MIN are 7-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 20/34 | 213 | 1 | 2 |
| Brad Johnson | 1/1 | 12 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 7 | 34 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 1 |
| Mewelde Moore | 1 | 10 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Artose Pinner | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.09%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.6%
Expected total
42.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+0.73
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+2.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.