Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
48
Model margin
+2.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.075
- 45.5%Success rate40.2%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.73CPOE-1.93
- 49.3%Third-down rate37.5%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 2.18Points / drive1.49
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 17/29 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 22 | 112 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/36 | 240 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 24 | 69 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67