Closing spread
SEA -1
Total
48
Model margin
+2.7est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.072EPA / play-0.075
- 45.5%Success rate40.2%
- +0.143EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.024EPA / rush-0.130
- 9.8%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.73CPOE-1.93
- 49.3%Third-down rate37.5%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate55.0%
- 2.18Points / drive1.49
- 2.6%Turnover rate3.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 9–7 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. SEA are 9-5-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DAL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 60 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 11:13 | 8 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| SEA | Q1 7:22 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| DAL | Q1 7:11 | 4 | 11 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q1 4:50 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q1 3:50 | 3 | 21 | Turnover | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q1 2:37 | 6 | 14 | Punt | 3–3 |
| DAL | Q2 14:38 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–3 |
| SEA | Q2 13:37 | 13 | 44 | Field goal | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q2 8:23 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–6 |
| SEA | Q2 6:40 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 3–6 |
| DAL | Q2 5:14 | 11 | 86 | Touchdown | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q2 0:11 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–6 |
| DAL | Q3 15:00 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 10–6 |
| SEA | Q3 12:53 | 13 | 57 | Touchdown | 16–13 |
| DAL | Q3 6:08 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q3 5:57 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 17–13 |
| DAL | Q3 2:53 | 6 | 13 | Punt | 17–13 |
| SEA | Q4 14:48 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 17–13 |
| DAL | Q4 14:41 | 8 | 51 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| SEA | Q4 10:15 | 8 | 42 | Turnover on downs | 20–15 |
| DAL | Q4 6:42 | 1 | -2 | Safety | 20–15 |
| SEA | Q4 6:32 | 4 | 50 | Touchdown | 20–21 |
| DAL | Q4 4:24 | 8 | 70 | Turnover on downs | 20–21 |
| SEA | Q4 1:14 | 4 | 27 | Punt | 20–21 |
| DAL | Q4 0:02 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 20–21 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 17/29 | 189 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julius Jones | 22 | 112 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Marion Barber | 3 | 4 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Hasselbeck | 18/36 | 240 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Alexander | 24 | 69 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Maurice Morris | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Hasselbeck | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.67