Closing spread
IND -7
Total
50.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
IND perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Colts
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.009EPA / play+0.153
- 41.1%Success rate51.4%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.294
- -0.050EPA / rush-0.043
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.8%
- +3.07CPOE+4.70
- 41.1%Third-down rate56.7%
- 57.2%Red-zone TD rate70.9%
- 1.66Points / drive2.54
- 2.3%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 45.9 points. IND are 12-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trent Green | 14/24 | 107 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Johnson | 13 | 32 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Dante Hall | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Michael Bennett | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Trent Green | 1 | -3 | -3.0 | 0 |
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 30/38 | 268 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 25 | 122 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 13 | 68 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Colts; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
4.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.2%
Expected total
46.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.82
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment+3.15
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.53