2006 · DIV

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

15·6

Ravens

Baltimore

QB Steve McNair

M&T Bank Stadium · outdoors · sportturf · 63°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

BAL -4

Total

41

Model margin

+5.0est.

BAL perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Ravens
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Ravens winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapRavens
  • +0.153EPA / play-0.014
  • 51.4%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.294EPA / dropback+0.108
  • -0.043EPA / rush-0.175
  • 8.8%Explosive rate7.0%
  • +4.70CPOE+3.00
  • 56.7%Third-down rate42.7%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate50.8%
  • 2.54Points / drive1.57
  • 1.7%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 10–7 since 1999

Meetings average 39.8 points. BAL are 5-12 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1BAL @ IND41–23BAL
2023 · W3IND @ BAL22–19IND
2021 · W5IND @ BAL25–31BAL
2020 · W9BAL @ IND24–10BAL
2017 · W16IND @ BAL16–23BAL
2014 · W5BAL @ IND13–20IND
2012 · playoffsIND @ BAL9–24BAL
2011 · W14IND @ BAL10–24BAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–BAL
BALQ1 15:0038Punt0–0
INDQ1 12:471044Field goal3–0
BALQ1 8:0429Turnover3–0
INDQ1 7:1438Field goal6–0
BALQ1 5:36427Punt6–0
INDQ1 2:4931Punt6–0
BALQ1 2:11514Field goal6–3
INDQ2 14:5630Turnover6–3
BALQ2 14:09851Turnover6–3
INDQ2 9:151260Field goal9–3
BALQ2 3:1535Punt9–3
INDQ2 1:4434Punt9–3
BALQ2 0:55212End of half9–3
INDQ3 15:00854Field goal12–3
BALQ3 10:57634Punt12–3
INDQ3 8:30545Punt12–3
BALQ3 5:431272Field goal12–6
INDQ4 13:0342Turnover12–6
BALQ4 12:03622Turnover12–6
INDQ4 10:1832Punt12–6
BALQ4 8:4332Punt12–6
INDQ4 7:391243Field goal15–6
BALQ4 0:231-12Turnover15–6
INDQ4 0:0800End of half15–6

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning15/3017002

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dominic Rhodes14564.00
Joseph Addai18392.20
Peyton Manning351.70

Ravens

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Steve McNair18/2917302

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamal Lewis13534.10
Mike Anderson4184.50
Steve McNair166.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.5%6.4%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+4.99