Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
40
Model margin
+1.3est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.038
- 43.2%Success rate44.2%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.061
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.008
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.8%
- -0.23CPOE-5.32
- 35.8%Third-down rate41.9%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.51Points / drive1.67
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 12–7 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. NYG are 9-10 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–NYG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 60 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| NYG | Q1 14:19 | 9 | 70 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| MIN | Q1 9:25 | 9 | 26 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NYG | Q1 4:13 | 3 | 3 | Opp touchdown | 14–7 |
| NYG | Q1 3:15 | 7 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 14–7 |
| MIN | Q1 0:21 | 7 | 12 | Punt | 14–7 |
| NYG | Q2 11:21 | 4 | 1 | Turnover | 20–7 |
| MIN | Q2 9:58 | 1 | 8 | Touchdown | 21–7 |
| NYG | Q2 9:49 | 4 | 3 | Punt | 21–7 |
| MIN | Q2 8:03 | 8 | 37 | Field goal | 24–7 |
| NYG | Q2 3:16 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 24–7 |
| MIN | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 24–7 |
| NYG | Q2 0:45 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 24–7 |
| MIN | Q2 0:13 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 24–7 |
| NYG | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 48 | Field goal | 24–10 |
| MIN | Q3 11:07 | 13 | 69 | Field goal | 27–10 |
| NYG | Q3 1:43 | 11 | 59 | Opp touchdown | 34–10 |
| NYG | Q4 13:41 | 2 | 6 | Opp touchdown | 41–10 |
| NYG | Q4 12:59 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 41–10 |
| MIN | Q4 11:05 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 41–10 |
| NYG | Q4 8:45 | 7 | 44 | Touchdown | 41–17 |
| MIN | Q4 5:54 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 41–17 |
| NYG | Q4 5:09 | 5 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 41–17 |
| MIN | Q4 3:38 | 6 | 27 | End of half | 41–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 10/12 | 129 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 31 | 77 | 2.5 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 21/49 | 273 | 1 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reuben Droughns | 15 | 46 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 4 | 29 | 7.3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.60%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.6%
Expected total
42.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.23
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.33