Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
-2.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.056
- 45.0%Success rate43.6%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.02CPOE+1.59
- 43.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 2.12Points / drive1.64
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/30 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 100 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 14/20 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 96 | 6.9 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.59