Closing spread
ARI -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
-2.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.052EPA / play-0.056
- 45.0%Success rate43.6%
- +0.144EPA / dropback-0.002
- -0.140EPA / rush-0.150
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.4%
- +5.02CPOE+1.59
- 43.3%Third-down rate37.4%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate53.3%
- 2.12Points / drive1.64
- 2.8%Turnover rate3.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 29–22 since 1999
SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–SF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:41 | 6 | 33 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 11:06 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| ARI | Q1 9:57 | 3 | 9 | Missed field goal | 3–0 |
| SF | Q1 8:43 | 5 | 75 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 6:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q1 4:15 | 6 | 27 | Turnover | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q1 0:59 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 3–7 |
| SF | Q2 14:51 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 3–7 |
| ARI | Q2 13:15 | 6 | 58 | Touchdown | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 10:25 | 2 | 31 | Turnover | 10–7 |
| ARI | Q2 9:16 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 10–7 |
| SF | Q2 6:11 | 8 | 69 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q2 1:52 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 10–10 |
| SF | Q2 0:02 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–10 |
| ARI | Q3 15:00 | 14 | 80 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| SF | Q3 8:25 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 13–10 |
| ARI | Q3 8:21 | 9 | 23 | Touchdown | 20–10 |
| SF | Q3 4:03 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 20–13 |
| ARI | Q4 12:05 | 17 | 62 | Field goal | 23–13 |
| SF | Q4 1:57 | 1 | -5 | Turnover | 23–13 |
| ARI | Q4 1:49 | 0 | 0 | Turnover on downs | 23–13 |
| SF | Q4 0:16 | 1 | 22 | End of half | 23–13 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kurt Warner | 19/30 | 197 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edgerrin James | 26 | 100 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Tim Hightower | 8 | 13 | 1.6 | 1 |
| Kurt Warner | 5 | -4 | -0.8 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 14/20 | 195 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 14 | 96 | 6.9 | 1 |
| DeShaun Foster | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
| J.T. O'Sullivan | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.01
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-5.09
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.59