Closing spread
CIN -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play-0.018
- 38.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.150EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.027
- 5.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -3.29CPOE-0.33
- 35.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 0.93Points / drive1.61
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–25 since 1999
Meetings average 43 points. BAL are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 10/25 | 99 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Perry | 18 | 37 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/29 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 22 | 64 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 42 | 42.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
39.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.43