Closing spread
CIN -2
Total
37.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
BAL perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Ravens
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.172EPA / play-0.018
- 38.0%Success rate40.6%
- -0.150EPA / dropback-0.007
- -0.208EPA / rush-0.027
- 5.1%Explosive rate7.9%
- -3.29CPOE-0.33
- 35.3%Third-down rate41.3%
- 45.7%Red-zone TD rate50.4%
- 0.93Points / drive1.61
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
BAL lead 30–26 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. BAL are 25-29-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | CIN–BAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | Q1 15:00 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 14:13 | 3 | -9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 12:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CIN | Q1 10:34 | 9 | 25 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| BAL | Q1 5:18 | 8 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q1 2:12 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q1 0:41 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 14:02 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q2 12:25 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 11:17 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q2 9:27 | 5 | 12 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 7:40 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q2 5:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| CIN | Q2 4:08 | 3 | 23 | Turnover | 0–7 |
| BAL | Q2 2:37 | 5 | 21 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| CIN | Q2 1:43 | 7 | 24 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q2 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 13:17 | 14 | 59 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| CIN | Q3 5:23 | 7 | 35 | Turnover on downs | 3–10 |
| BAL | Q3 2:47 | 6 | 64 | Touchdown | 3–17 |
| CIN | Q3 0:15 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 3–17 |
| BAL | Q4 14:52 | 7 | 30 | Opp touchdown | 10–17 |
| BAL | Q4 10:15 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 10–17 |
| CIN | Q4 8:50 | 5 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| BAL | Q4 7:15 | 11 | 64 | End of half | 10–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 10/25 | 99 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Perry | 18 | 37 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 3 | 15 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Kenny Watson | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
Ravens
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Flacco | 15/29 | 129 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ray Rice | 22 | 64 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Mark Clayton | 1 | 42 | 42.0 | 1 |
| Joe Flacco | 4 | 37 | 9.3 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Ravens; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
1.99%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.3%
Expected total
39.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.43
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.43