Closing spread
DEN -3
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
6.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Raiders
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. OAK are 29-23-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 76 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 9:59 | 10 | 28 | Turnover | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q1 4:25 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 0:09 | 5 | 21 | Punt | 7–0 |
| DEN | Q2 12:38 | 6 | 77 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LV | Q2 9:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–0 |
| DEN | Q2 7:33 | 7 | 38 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| LV | Q2 4:21 | 6 | 38 | Punt | 17–0 |
| DEN | Q2 1:44 | 5 | 31 | Punt | 17–0 |
| LV | Q2 0:26 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 17–0 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 42 | Punt | 17–0 |
| DEN | Q3 10:25 | 5 | 92 | Touchdown | 24–0 |
| LV | Q3 8:23 | 3 | 16 | Punt | 24–0 |
| DEN | Q3 6:30 | 7 | 41 | Field goal | 27–0 |
| LV | Q3 3:17 | 10 | 81 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| DEN | Q4 13:08 | 6 | 50 | Touchdown | 34–7 |
| LV | Q4 10:08 | 4 | 5 | Turnover on downs | 34–7 |
| DEN | Q4 8:06 | 6 | 18 | Touchdown | 41–7 |
| LV | Q4 4:35 | 9 | 78 | Touchdown | 41–14 |
| DEN | Q4 1:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 41–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 16/24 | 299 | 2 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Hall | 10 | 61 | 6.1 | 0 |
| Selvin Young | 7 | 36 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Peyton Hillis | 3 | 14 | 4.7 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 7 | 13 | 1.9 | 2 |
| Jay Cutler | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Eddie Royal | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
6.84%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
46.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.73
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.22
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.