Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.031
- 45.3%Success rate42.9%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.93CPOE+0.13
- 42.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.91Points / drive1.61
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | HOU–PIT |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Q1 15:00 | 8 | 26 | Turnover on downs | 0–0 |
| PIT | Q1 10:32 | 8 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| HOU | Q1 5:44 | 7 | 23 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PIT | Q1 2:03 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| HOU | Q2 11:00 | 3 | 6 | Turnover | 0–14 |
| PIT | Q2 9:31 | 2 | 19 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| HOU | Q2 9:03 | 5 | 11 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| PIT | Q2 6:47 | 1 | -3 | Turnover | 0–21 |
| HOU | Q2 6:35 | 3 | -4 | Field goal | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q2 4:29 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 3–21 |
| HOU | Q2 2:42 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q2 1:35 | 4 | 15 | End of half | 3–21 |
| PIT | Q3 15:00 | 10 | 66 | Touchdown | 3–28 |
| HOU | Q3 9:10 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 3–28 |
| PIT | Q3 7:40 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 3–35 |
| HOU | Q3 2:04 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 3–35 |
| PIT | Q4 14:44 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 3–35 |
| HOU | Q4 13:14 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 10–35 |
| PIT | Q4 9:00 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 10–35 |
| HOU | Q4 7:26 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 10–35 |
| PIT | Q4 6:18 | 3 | 2 | Field goal | 10–38 |
| HOU | Q4 5:24 | 11 | 69 | Touchdown | 17–38 |
| PIT | Q4 1:14 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 17–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 25/33 | 202 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/14 | 137 | 2 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 25 | 138 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43