Closing spread
PIT -6.5
Total
43
Model margin
+4.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.037EPA / play-0.031
- 45.3%Success rate42.9%
- +0.069EPA / dropback+0.022
- -0.012EPA / rush-0.103
- 9.6%Explosive rate7.8%
- +3.93CPOE+0.13
- 42.2%Third-down rate41.3%
- 52.0%Red-zone TD rate54.8%
- 1.91Points / drive1.61
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 25/33 | 202 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Slaton | 13 | 43 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Ahman Green | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 1 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 13/14 | 137 | 2 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 0/4 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 25 | 138 | 5.5 | 3 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 17 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Byron Leftwich | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.43