2023 · Week 4

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Kenny Pickett

6·30

Texans

Houston

QB C.J. Stroud

NRG Stadium · open · astroturf

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

41.5

Model margin

+1.4est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTexans
  • -0.064EPA / play-0.023
  • 42.3%Success rate41.4%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.069EPA / rush-0.164
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.21CPOE-1.53
  • 37.3%Third-down rate37.7%
  • 58.6%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.91
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–4 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. HOU are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ PIT30–6HOU
2020 · W3HOU @ PIT21–28PIT
2017 · W16PIT @ HOU34–6PIT
2014 · W7HOU @ PIT23–30PIT
2011 · W4PIT @ HOU10–17HOU
2008 · W1HOU @ PIT17–38PIT
2005 · W2PIT @ HOU27–7PIT
2002 · W14HOU @ PIT24–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–HOU
HOUQ1 15:001470Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 8:55813Turnover0–7
HOUQ1 4:46827Field goal0–10
PITQ1 1:2032Punt0–10
HOUQ2 14:52648Field goal0–13
PITQ2 12:0932Punt0–13
HOUQ2 10:37639Turnover on downs0–13
PITQ2 7:05521Punt0–13
HOUQ2 4:26530Punt0–13
PITQ2 1:57815Punt0–13
HOUQ2 0:41257Field goal0–16
PITQ3 15:00958Field goal3–16
HOUQ3 9:3134Punt3–16
PITQ3 8:40641Field goal6–16
HOUQ3 5:47417Punt6–16
PITQ3 4:43734Turnover on downs6–16
HOUQ3 1:101068Touchdown6–23
PITQ4 10:5038Punt6–23
HOUQ4 10:031191Touchdown6–30
PITQ4 3:39731End of half6–30

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kenny Pickett15/2311401
Mitchell Trubisky3/51800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Najee Harris14715.10
Jaylen Warren8293.60
Kenny Pickett294.50
Calvin Austin III155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Najee Harris12320
Jaylen Warren66260
George Pickens37250
Calvin Austin III35240
Darnell Washington11100
Allen Robinson1280
Pat Freiermuth3470

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
C.J. Stroud16/3030620
Devin Singletary1/1610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dameon Pierce24813.40
Devin Singletary7253.60
C.J. Stroud4164.00
Tank Dell2136.50
Mike Boone144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Nico Collins791682
Dalton Schultz33421
Dameon Pierce12270
Robert Woods36260
John Metchie III12220
Tank Dell13160
Devin Singletary11110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.17%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.7%

Expected total

43.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.36