Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
41.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
7.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.064EPA / play-0.023
- 42.3%Success rate41.4%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.069EPA / rush-0.164
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.21CPOE-1.53
- 37.3%Third-down rate37.7%
- 58.6%Red-zone TD rate58.4%
- 1.54Points / drive1.91
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. HOU are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Pickett | 15/23 | 114 | 0 | 1 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 3/5 | 18 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 14 | 71 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 8 | 29 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Najee Harris | 1 | 2 | 32 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 6 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| George Pickens | 3 | 7 | 25 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Darnell Washington | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Allen Robinson | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 16/30 | 306 | 2 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1/1 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dameon Pierce | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Mike Boone | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nico Collins | 7 | 9 | 168 | 2 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 3 | 42 | 1 |
| Dameon Pierce | 1 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| Robert Woods | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| John Metchie III | 1 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Tank Dell | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Devin Singletary | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.17%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.7%
Expected total
43.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.35
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.36