Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.099
- 43.9%Success rate40.0%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.098
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.2%
- 35.7%Third-down rate34.0%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.99Points / drive1.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. HOU are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/21 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/26 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| David Carr | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.60