Closing spread
PIT -4.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
-1.6est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Texans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.057EPA / play-0.099
- 43.9%Success rate40.0%
- +0.202EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.067EPA / rush-0.098
- 9.7%Explosive rate6.2%
- 35.7%Third-down rate34.0%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate55.5%
- 1.99Points / drive1.30
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.3%
- -0.084EPA / play allowed+0.119
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. HOU are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | PIT–HOU |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | Q1 15:00 | 10 | 61 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| HOU | Q1 10:07 | 3 | -1 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| PIT | Q1 8:39 | 2 | 22 | Touchdown | 10–0 |
| HOU | Q1 8:04 | 6 | 28 | Punt | 10–0 |
| PIT | Q1 4:16 | 10 | 102 | Touchdown | 17–0 |
| HOU | Q2 14:55 | 12 | 35 | Punt | 17–0 |
| PIT | Q2 8:18 | 8 | 79 | Field goal | 20–0 |
| HOU | Q2 3:58 | 6 | 4 | Punt | 20–0 |
| PIT | Q2 1:27 | 3 | 9 | End of half | 20–0 |
| HOU | Q3 15:00 | 15 | 88 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| PIT | Q3 7:05 | 7 | 63 | Touchdown | 27–7 |
| HOU | Q3 3:51 | 11 | 52 | Turnover on downs | 27–7 |
| PIT | Q4 12:31 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 27–7 |
| HOU | Q4 10:56 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 27–7 |
| PIT | Q4 9:42 | 15 | 44 | Turnover on downs | 27–7 |
| HOU | Q4 1:01 | 3 | 0 | End of half | 27–7 |
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 14/21 | 254 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willie Parker | 25 | 111 | 4.4 | 1 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 16/26 | 167 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domanick Williams | 15 | 59 | 3.9 | 0 |
| David Carr | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.17
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.60