Closing spread
HOU -3
Total
38.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.3%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.008EPA / play+0.027
- 41.7%Success rate44.1%
- +0.083EPA / dropback+0.046
- -0.149EPA / rush-0.001
- 7.2%Explosive rate8.3%
- -1.68CPOE+0.58
- 37.4%Third-down rate40.4%
- 48.6%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 2.05Points / drive2.11
- 1.0%Turnover rate1.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Stroud | 21/32 | 250 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Woody Marks | 19 | 112 | 5.9 | 1 |
| Nick Chubb | 10 | 48 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Stroud | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Kirk | 8 | 9 | 144 | 1 |
| Jayden Higgins | 3 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Nico Collins | 3 | 7 | 21 | 0 |
| Xavier Hutchinson | 2 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Cade Stover | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Dalton Schultz | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Jaylin Noel | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Woody Marks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 17/33 | 146 | 0 | 1 |
| Mason Rudolph | 1/1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jaylen Warren | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DK Metcalf | 2 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Marquez Valdes-Scantling | 3 | 5 | 26 | 0 |
| Kenny Gainwell | 4 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Pat Freiermuth | 1 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Calvin Austin III | 3 | 6 | 8 | 0 |
| Jaylen Warren | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Jonnu Smith | 2 | 3 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.34%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
43.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.61
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.09