2011 · Week 4

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

10·17

Texans

Houston

QB Matt Schaub

Reliant Stadium · open · grass

Closing spread

HOU -4

Total

46

Model margin

+1.8est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTexans
  • +0.054EPA / play+0.024
  • 44.9%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.134EPA / dropback+0.116
  • -0.065EPA / rush-0.066
  • 10.4%Explosive rate11.9%
  • +3.03CPOE-0.14
  • 45.1%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
  • 1.78Points / drive2.04
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–4 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. HOU are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ PIT30–6HOU
2023 · W4PIT @ HOU6–30HOU
2020 · W3HOU @ PIT21–28PIT
2017 · W16PIT @ HOU34–6PIT
2014 · W7HOU @ PIT23–30PIT
2008 · W1HOU @ PIT17–38PIT
2005 · W2PIT @ HOU27–7PIT
2002 · W14HOU @ PIT24–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–HOU
HOUQ1 15:0017103Touchdown0–0
HOUQ1 5:28211Touchdown0–6
HOUQ1 4:1111Touchdown0–7
PITQ1 4:051033Punt0–7
HOUQ1 0:15941Punt0–7
PITQ2 10:1939Punt0–7
HOUQ2 8:141160Field goal0–10
PITQ2 2:33983Missed field goal0–10
PITQ3 15:001379Touchdown7–10
HOUQ3 7:0232Punt7–10
PITQ3 5:24860Field goal10–10
HOUQ4 14:57585Touchdown10–17
PITQ4 12:0231Punt10–17
HOUQ4 10:2533Punt10–17
PITQ4 8:2154Punt10–17
HOUQ4 5:2634Punt10–17
PITQ4 3:3343Turnover on downs10–17
HOUQ4 2:3339Punt10–17
PITQ4 1:02424Turnover10–17
HOUQ4 0:1000End of half10–17

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger16/3020601

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Isaac Redman6406.70
Mewelde Moore4348.50
Rashard Mendenhall9252.81
Ben Roethlisberger2115.50
Antonio Brown188.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace44770
Antonio Brown510670
Hines Ward14190
Heath Miller33150
Isaac Redman11120
Emmanuel Sanders12100
David Johnson1260
Jerricho Cotchery0100
Rashard Mendenhall0200

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Schaub14/2113810

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster301555.21
Ben Tate22010.00
Chris Ogbonnaya144.00
Matt Schaub210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Owen Daniels57691
Andre Johnson45360
Joel Dreessen11140
Arian Foster35110
James Casey1180
Kevin Walter0100
Jacoby Jones0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.1%2.8%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%2.9%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

53.8%

Expected total

42.7est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.77