Closing spread
HOU -4
Total
46
Model margin
+1.8est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Texans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.054EPA / play+0.024
- 44.9%Success rate44.6%
- +0.134EPA / dropback+0.116
- -0.065EPA / rush-0.066
- 10.4%Explosive rate11.9%
- +3.03CPOE-0.14
- 45.1%Third-down rate41.5%
- 49.2%Red-zone TD rate56.8%
- 1.78Points / drive2.04
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. HOU are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 16/30 | 206 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Isaac Redman | 6 | 40 | 6.7 | 0 |
| Mewelde Moore | 4 | 34 | 8.5 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 9 | 25 | 2.8 | 1 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 4 | 4 | 77 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 5 | 10 | 67 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 1 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Isaac Redman | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Schaub | 14/21 | 138 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 30 | 155 | 5.2 | 1 |
| Ben Tate | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Matt Schaub | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Owen Daniels | 5 | 7 | 69 | 1 |
| Andre Johnson | 4 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 3 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| James Casey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Kevin Walter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jacoby Jones | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.8%
Expected total
42.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.77