Closing spread
PIT -14
Total
37.5
Model margin
+6.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.226EPA / play+0.008
- 33.0%Success rate43.3%
- -0.172EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.307EPA / rush-0.073
- 5.8%Explosive rate9.7%
- 25.7%Third-down rate42.2%
- 39.5%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 0.66Points / drive1.71
- 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
- -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.086
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Carr | 3/10 | 33 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Allen | 13 | 19 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Jonathan Wells | 10 | 12 | 1.2 | 0 |
| David Carr | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Billy Miller | 3 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| James Allen | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Corey Bradford | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jabar Gaffney | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jarrod Baxter | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tommy Maddox | 30/57 | 325 | 0 | 2 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1/1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amos Zereoue | 11 | 69 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 14 | 30 | 2.1 | 0 |
| Antwaan Randle El | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Tommy Maddox | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antwaan Randle El | 8 | 11 | 88 | 0 |
| Plaxico Burress | 6 | 18 | 83 | 0 |
| Hines Ward | 9 | 13 | 76 | 0 |
| Terance Mathis | 5 | 9 | 42 | 0 |
| Amos Zereoue | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Jerome Bettis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jerame Tuman | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
3.18%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
40.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.79
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.36