2002 · Week 14

Final

Texans

Houston

QB David Carr

24·6

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Tommy Maddox

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 35°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PIT -14

Total

37.5

Model margin

+6.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapSteelers
  • -0.226EPA / play+0.008
  • 33.0%Success rate43.3%
  • -0.172EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.307EPA / rush-0.073
  • 5.8%Explosive rate9.7%
  • 25.7%Third-down rate42.2%
  • 39.5%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 0.66Points / drive1.71
  • 2.4%Turnover rate2.9%
  • -0.083EPA / play allowed-0.086

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–4 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ PIT30–6HOU
2023 · W4PIT @ HOU6–30HOU
2020 · W3HOU @ PIT21–28PIT
2017 · W16PIT @ HOU34–6PIT
2014 · W7HOU @ PIT23–30PIT
2011 · W4PIT @ HOU10–17HOU
2008 · W1HOU @ PIT17–38PIT
2005 · W2PIT @ HOU27–7PIT

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–PIT
HOUQ1 15:0084Punt0–0
PITQ1 10:511148Opp touchdown7–0
HOUQ1 5:5400Opp touchdown7–0
PITQ1 5:54831Opp touchdown14–0
HOUQ1 2:0100Opp touchdown14–0
PITQ1 2:01852Turnover14–0
HOUQ2 13:1837Punt14–0
PITQ2 11:5332Punt14–0
HOUQ2 10:1837Punt14–0
PITQ2 8:1734Punt14–0
HOUQ2 6:473-5Punt14–0
PITQ2 5:4933Punt14–0
HOUQ2 4:2839Punt14–0
PITQ2 2:53962Field goal14–3
HOUQ2 0:2000End of half14–3
PITQ3 15:001033Field goal14–6
HOUQ3 9:333-1Punt14–6
PITQ3 8:21412Punt14–6
HOUQ3 7:02519Punt14–6
PITQ3 4:2739Punt14–6
HOUQ3 2:4230Punt14–6
PITQ3 0:511039Missed field goal14–6
HOUQ4 13:0036Punt14–6
PITQ4 10:52414Punt14–6
PITQ4 8:29619Turnover on downs14–6
HOUQ4 5:4037Punt14–6
HOUQ4 3:573-5Field goal17–6
PITQ4 3:35834Opp touchdown24–6
HOUQ4 2:0200Opp touchdown24–6
PITQ4 2:02860End of half24–6

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Carr3/103300

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Allen13191.50
Jonathan Wells10121.20
David Carr362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Billy Miller33330
James Allen0200
Corey Bradford0300
Jabar Gaffney0100
Jarrod Baxter0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tommy Maddox30/5732502
Antwaan Randle El1/1100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Amos Zereoue11696.30
Jerome Bettis14302.10
Antwaan Randle El11111.00
Hines Ward273.50
Tommy Maddox263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antwaan Randle El811880
Plaxico Burress618830
Hines Ward913760
Terance Mathis59420
Amos Zereoue23270
Jerome Bettis0100
Jerame Tuman0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +147.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

3.18%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

40.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.79
  • Home-field advantage+2.56
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.36