2014 · Week 7

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

23·30

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 57°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -3

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.7est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapSteelers
  • -0.031EPA / play+0.118
  • 40.7%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.046EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.120EPA / rush-0.084
  • 8.8%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -2.14CPOE+5.59
  • 38.0%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 52.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.26
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–4 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ PIT30–6HOU
2023 · W4PIT @ HOU6–30HOU
2020 · W3HOU @ PIT21–28PIT
2017 · W16PIT @ HOU34–6PIT
2011 · W4PIT @ HOU10–17HOU
2008 · W1HOU @ PIT17–38PIT
2005 · W2PIT @ HOU27–7PIT
2002 · W14HOU @ PIT24–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–PIT
PITQ1 15:00826Punt0–0
HOUQ1 11:241094Touchdown7–0
PITQ1 5:55826Turnover7–0
HOUQ1 2:20825Field goal10–0
PITQ2 13:3432Punt10–0
HOUQ2 11:56951Field goal13–0
PITQ2 7:16855Field goal13–3
HOUQ2 3:0831Punt13–3
PITQ2 1:46263Touchdown13–10
HOUQ2 1:272-2Turnover13–16
PITQ2 1:1013Touchdown13–17
HOUQ2 1:0310Turnover13–17
PITQ2 0:5828Touchdown13–24
HOUQ2 0:1400End of half13–24
HOUQ3 15:0039Punt13–24
PITQ3 13:17625Punt13–24
HOUQ3 9:23957Punt13–24
PITQ3 4:15840Punt13–24
HOUQ4 14:29950Field goal16–24
PITQ4 11:471065Field goal16–27
HOUQ4 5:50238Turnover16–27
PITQ4 4:55517Field goal16–30
HOUQ4 3:04771Touchdown23–30
PITQ4 1:3100End of half23–30

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick21/3226221

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Arian Foster201025.10
Ryan Fitzpatrick5163.20
Alfred Blue5142.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins691080
Andre Johnson59770
Garrett Graham23240
Damaris Johnson12150
Arian Foster46131
Alfred Blue11111
C.J. Fiedorowicz1190
Keshawn Martin1150

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3326520
Antonio Brown1/1310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell12574.80
LeGarrette Blount791.30
Dri Archer273.50
Ben Roethlisberger430.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown913900
Le'Veon Bell88881
Martavis Bryant25401
Darrius Heyward-Bey11170
Heath Miller11130
Lance Moore22121
LeGarrette Blount1180
Will Johnson0100
Markus Wheaton0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +34.0%2.7%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

7.52%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.2%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+2.67