Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.7est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.031EPA / play+0.118
- 40.7%Success rate48.4%
- +0.046EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.120EPA / rush-0.084
- 8.8%Explosive rate9.0%
- -2.14CPOE+5.59
- 38.0%Third-down rate45.6%
- 52.8%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.63Points / drive2.26
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 21/32 | 262 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arian Foster | 20 | 102 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Alfred Blue | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 6 | 9 | 108 | 0 |
| Andre Johnson | 5 | 9 | 77 | 0 |
| Garrett Graham | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Damaris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Arian Foster | 4 | 6 | 13 | 1 |
| Alfred Blue | 1 | 1 | 11 | 1 |
| C.J. Fiedorowicz | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Keshawn Martin | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/33 | 265 | 2 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 1/1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 12 | 57 | 4.8 | 0 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 7 | 9 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 13 | 90 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 8 | 88 | 1 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 5 | 40 | 1 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 2 | 2 | 12 | 1 |
| LeGarrette Blount | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
7.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.2%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+2.67