Closing spread
PIT -8
Total
45.5
Model margin
-1.7est.
HOU perspective
Push chance
2.0%est.
Win probability
- Texans
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play-0.053
- 46.0%Success rate40.4%
- +0.177EPA / dropback-0.004
- -0.085EPA / rush-0.126
- 9.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- +3.69CPOE-2.95
- 43.8%Third-down rate36.6%
- 57.6%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
- 2.22Points / drive1.47
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. HOU are 4-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20/29 | 226 | 2 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 14 | 69 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Stevan Ridley | 9 | 28 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Landry Jones | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 6 | 7 | 75 | 1 |
| Martavis Bryant | 3 | 4 | 60 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 4 | 5 | 52 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 5 | 8 | 28 | 0 |
| Eli Rogers | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Justin Hunter | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 |
| Jesse James | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Yates | 7/16 | 83 | 1 | 1 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1/1 | 10 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Blue | 16 | 108 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 10 | 55 | 5.5 | 0 |
| T.J. Yates | 1 | 11 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Taylor Heinicke | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAndre Hopkins | 4 | 6 | 65 | 1 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Will Fuller | 1 | 5 | 10 | 0 |
| Braxton Miller | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Ryan Malleck | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Stephen Anderson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.4%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.77
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment+0.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.73