2017 · Week 16

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

34·6

Texans

Houston

QB T.J. Yates

NRG Stadium · closed · astroturf

Closing spread

PIT -8

Total

45.5

Model margin

-1.7est.

HOU perspective

Push chance

2.0%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Texans

Win probability

  • Texans
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Texans winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapTexans
  • +0.076EPA / play-0.053
  • 46.0%Success rate40.4%
  • +0.177EPA / dropback-0.004
  • -0.085EPA / rush-0.126
  • 9.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • +3.69CPOE-2.95
  • 43.8%Third-down rate36.6%
  • 57.6%Red-zone TD rate63.3%
  • 2.22Points / drive1.47
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–4 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. HOU are 4-5 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ PIT30–6HOU
2023 · W4PIT @ HOU6–30HOU
2020 · W3HOU @ PIT21–28PIT
2014 · W7HOU @ PIT23–30PIT
2011 · W4PIT @ HOU10–17HOU
2008 · W1HOU @ PIT17–38PIT
2005 · W2PIT @ HOU27–7PIT
2002 · W14HOU @ PIT24–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–HOU
PITQ1 15:00759Field goal3–0
HOUQ1 10:403-5Punt3–0
PITQ1 9:03654Touchdown10–0
HOUQ1 6:59729Punt10–0
PITQ1 3:20620Punt10–0
HOUQ2 14:52980Turnover10–0
PITQ2 10:211261Touchdown17–0
HOUQ2 4:1433Turnover17–0
PITQ2 2:45510Field goal20–0
HOUQ2 0:5331Punt20–0
PITQ2 0:0300End of half20–0
HOUQ3 15:00816Punt20–0
PITQ3 9:0237Punt20–0
HOUQ3 7:2337Punt20–0
PITQ3 5:43830Touchdown27–0
HOUQ3 1:48872Touchdown27–6
PITQ4 12:30575Touchdown34–6
HOUQ4 9:26520Punt34–6
PITQ4 6:4835Punt34–6
HOUQ4 5:1054Punt34–6
PITQ4 2:46211End of half34–6

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger20/2922620
Landry Jones0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell14694.91
Stevan Ridley9283.10
Martavis Bryant188.00
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00
Landry Jones2-1-0.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
JuJu Smith-Schuster67751
Martavis Bryant34600
Vance McDonald45520
Le'Veon Bell58280
Eli Rogers1460
Justin Hunter1151
Jesse James0100

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
T.J. Yates7/168311
Taylor Heinicke1/11000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Blue161086.80
Lamar Miller10555.50
T.J. Yates11111.00
Taylor Heinicke122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeAndre Hopkins46651
Lamar Miller11100
Will Fuller15100
Braxton Miller1250
Ryan Malleck1130
Stephen Anderson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -82.9%4.6%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.8%4.1%

Positive margins favour Texans; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

44.4%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.30
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.73