2020 · Week 3

Final

Texans

Houston

QB Deshaun Watson

21·28

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 79°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

PIT -4

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Texans

Steelers

Nothing filed.

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Texans

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsTexans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Texansedge mapSteelers
  • +0.093EPA / play+0.035
  • 47.8%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.211EPA / dropback+0.118
  • -0.193EPA / rush-0.134
  • 9.7%Explosive rate7.4%
  • +6.51CPOE-0.90
  • 43.5%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 63.1%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
  • 2.25Points / drive2.12
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 5–4 since 1999

HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · playoffsHOU @ PIT30–6HOU
2023 · W4PIT @ HOU6–30HOU
2017 · W16PIT @ HOU34–6PIT
2014 · W7HOU @ PIT23–30PIT
2011 · W4PIT @ HOU10–17HOU
2008 · W1HOU @ PIT17–38PIT
2005 · W2PIT @ HOU27–7PIT
2002 · W14HOU @ PIT24–6HOU

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultHOU–PIT
HOUQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
PITQ1 14:061153Field goal0–3
HOUQ1 8:55774Touchdown7–3
PITQ1 6:013-5Punt7–3
HOUQ1 3:483-1Punt7–3
PITQ1 1:3133Punt7–3
HOUQ1 0:30954Touchdown14–3
PITQ2 11:321284Touchdown14–10
HOUQ2 5:0532Punt14–10
PITQ2 2:38763Touchdown14–17
HOUQ2 1:14575Touchdown21–17
PITQ2 0:2400End of half21–17
PITQ3 15:001338Field goal21–20
HOUQ3 9:5436Punt21–20
PITQ3 7:3839Punt21–20
HOUQ3 5:243-2Punt21–20
PITQ3 3:0032Punt21–20
HOUQ3 1:59842Turnover21–20
PITQ4 13:271279Touchdown21–28
HOUQ4 6:2435Punt21–28
PITQ4 4:47866End of half21–28

Box score

Individual performances

Texans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Deshaun Watson19/2726421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Johnson13231.81
Deshaun Watson155.00
C.J. Prosise111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Randall Cobb44951
Will Fuller45541
Kenny Stills34350
Jordan Akins23280
Brandin Cooks35230
David Johnson23230
Cullen Gillaspia1160
Darren Fells0200

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger23/3623720

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
James Conner181096.11
Anthony McFarland6427.00
Benny Snell7111.60
Diontae Johnson199.00
Jaylen Samuels111.00
Ben Roethlisberger5-3-0.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Ebron57521
JuJu Smith-Schuster45431
James Conner45400
James Washington57360
Vance McDonald33350
Chase Claypool14240
Anthony McFarland1270
Diontae Johnson0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.

Half-point at risk

2.54%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.90