Closing spread
PIT -4
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Texans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.093EPA / play+0.035
- 47.8%Success rate44.0%
- +0.211EPA / dropback+0.118
- -0.193EPA / rush-0.134
- 9.7%Explosive rate7.4%
- +6.51CPOE-0.90
- 43.5%Third-down rate42.1%
- 63.1%Red-zone TD rate70.3%
- 2.25Points / drive2.12
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 5–4 since 1999
HOU have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40 points. PIT are 5-4 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Texans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deshaun Watson | 19/27 | 264 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Johnson | 13 | 23 | 1.8 | 1 |
| Deshaun Watson | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| C.J. Prosise | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 4 | 95 | 1 |
| Will Fuller | 4 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Jordan Akins | 2 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 2 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Cullen Gillaspia | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 23/36 | 237 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Conner | 18 | 109 | 6.1 | 1 |
| Anthony McFarland | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Benny Snell | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Jaylen Samuels | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 5 | -3 | -0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Ebron | 5 | 7 | 52 | 1 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | 4 | 5 | 43 | 1 |
| James Conner | 4 | 5 | 40 | 0 |
| James Washington | 5 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 3 | 3 | 35 | 0 |
| Chase Claypool | 1 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Anthony McFarland | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Texans.
Half-point at risk
2.54%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.19
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90