2008 · Week 1 · Division

Final

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB David Garrard

10·17

Titans

Tennessee

QB Vince Young

LP Field · outdoors · grass · 78°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

JAX -3

Total

36.5

Model margin

+3.0est.

TEN perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Win probability

  • Titans
  • Jaguars

How each play moved the game.

Titans winsJaguars wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jaguarsedge mapTitans
  • -0.004EPA / play-0.003
  • 44.6%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.013EPA / dropback+0.037
  • -0.032EPA / rush-0.044
  • 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +3.08CPOE-2.44
  • 41.7%Third-down rate36.7%
  • 62.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
  • 1.65Points / drive1.83
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Box score

Individual performances

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
David Garrard23/3521512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Fred Taylor9182.00
Maurice Jones-Drew5132.60
David Garrard320.70

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Vince Young12/2211012
Kerry Collins2/26500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson15936.20
LenDale White15402.71
Vince Young144.00
Kerry Collins100.00

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.

Half-point at risk

6.88%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.1%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.54
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.99