Closing spread
JAX -3
Total
36.5
Model margin
+3.0est.
TEN perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Titans
- Jaguars
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.004EPA / play-0.003
- 44.6%Success rate41.7%
- +0.013EPA / dropback+0.037
- -0.032EPA / rush-0.044
- 8.0%Explosive rate9.0%
- +3.08CPOE-2.44
- 41.7%Third-down rate36.7%
- 62.2%Red-zone TD rate64.5%
- 1.65Points / drive1.83
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. TEN are 28-25-2 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | JAX–TEN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JAX | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -10 | Punt | 0–0 |
| TEN | Q1 13:12 | 6 | 32 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 9:50 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q1 7:10 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q1 5:13 | 12 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| TEN | Q2 13:28 | 4 | 4 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| JAX | Q2 11:35 | 3 | 5 | Touchdown | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 10:16 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| JAX | Q2 8:53 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 7–3 |
| TEN | Q2 6:28 | 7 | 75 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q2 3:09 | 6 | 31 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q2 1:01 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 29 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q3 12:07 | 4 | 12 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 10:21 | 5 | 22 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q3 7:39 | 5 | 35 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q3 3:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q3 1:39 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q4 12:58 | 7 | 21 | Punt | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q4 9:07 | 2 | 9 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q4 8:20 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| JAX | Q4 8:13 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 7–10 |
| TEN | Q4 5:57 | 9 | 85 | Touchdown | 7–17 |
| JAX | Q4 3:47 | 6 | 36 | Field goal | 10–17 |
| TEN | Q4 2:12 | 4 | 9 | Turnover on downs | 10–17 |
| JAX | Q4 0:14 | 2 | 2 | End of half | 10–17 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Garrard | 23/35 | 215 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fred Taylor | 9 | 18 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 5 | 13 | 2.6 | 0 |
| David Garrard | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Young | 12/22 | 110 | 1 | 2 |
| Kerry Collins | 2/2 | 65 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 15 | 93 | 6.2 | 0 |
| LenDale White | 15 | 40 | 2.7 | 1 |
| Vince Young | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Kerry Collins | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Titans; negative favour Jaguars.
Half-point at risk
6.88%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.1%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.54
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.99