Closing spread
GB -2.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+1.4est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.039EPA / play+0.051
- 40.9%Success rate43.8%
- +0.001EPA / dropback+0.134
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.072
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.3%
- -2.18CPOE+4.24
- 39.7%Third-down rate44.1%
- 53.5%Red-zone TD rate66.2%
- 1.59Points / drive1.94
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. GB are 28-29 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | MIN–GB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Q1 15:00 | 7 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 11:19 | 10 | 26 | Punt | 0–0 |
| GB | Q1 6:08 | 8 | 28 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIN | Q1 1:32 | 6 | 56 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| GB | Q2 13:35 | 7 | 60 | Touchdown | 3–7 |
| MIN | Q2 10:07 | 6 | 9 | Punt | 3–7 |
| GB | Q2 7:36 | 7 | 63 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q2 3:21 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 3–10 |
| GB | Q2 1:52 | 8 | 57 | Missed field goal | 3–10 |
| MIN | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 77 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| GB | Q3 10:52 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 6–10 |
| MIN | Q3 8:34 | 6 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 6–17 |
| MIN | Q3 6:35 | 16 | 74 | Touchdown | 12–17 |
| GB | Q4 14:12 | 5 | 15 | Punt | 12–17 |
| MIN | Q4 10:36 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 12–17 |
| GB | Q4 8:34 | 5 | 71 | Touchdown | 12–24 |
| MIN | Q4 6:03 | 12 | 56 | Touchdown | 19–24 |
| GB | Q4 2:39 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 19–24 |
| MIN | Q4 1:51 | 3 | 14 | Turnover | 19–24 |
| GB | Q4 0:54 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 19–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 16/35 | 178 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 19 | 103 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 9 | 65 | 7.2 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 18/22 | 178 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Grant | 12 | 92 | 7.7 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Brandon Jackson | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
7.47%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
53.0%
Expected total
44.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.23
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+1.45