Closing spread
NYJ -3
Total
36
Model margin
+2.9est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.038EPA / play+0.084
- 47.0%Success rate46.3%
- +0.031EPA / dropback+0.181
- +0.048EPA / rush-0.039
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.6%
- +3.75CPOE+4.74
- 40.6%Third-down rate37.1%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate69.4%
- 1.85Points / drive1.69
- 3.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 29–26 since 1999
MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | NYJ–MIA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 13:16 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| MIA | Q1 10:01 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 6–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 8:52 | 1 | 56 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 8:42 | 5 | 12 | Punt | 7–0 |
| NYJ | Q1 6:11 | 6 | 26 | Missed field goal | 7–0 |
| MIA | Q1 3:31 | 11 | 78 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 12:41 | 11 | 60 | Touchdown | 13–7 |
| MIA | Q2 6:52 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 4:34 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 13–7 |
| MIA | Q2 2:32 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 13–7 |
| NYJ | Q2 1:42 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 13–7 |
| MIA | Q2 0:22 | 2 | -1 | End of half | 13–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 56 | Turnover | 13–7 |
| MIA | Q3 11:08 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 13–7 |
| NYJ | Q3 6:59 | 10 | 50 | Touchdown | 20–7 |
| MIA | Q3 1:08 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 20–7 |
| NYJ | Q4 14:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 20–7 |
| MIA | Q4 12:11 | 8 | 47 | Turnover on downs | 20–7 |
| NYJ | Q4 9:03 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–7 |
| MIA | Q4 6:48 | 8 | 53 | Touchdown | 20–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 3:27 | 3 | 11 | Punt | 20–14 |
| MIA | Q4 1:43 | 8 | 43 | Turnover | 20–14 |
| NYJ | Q4 0:05 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–14 |
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 15/22 | 194 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Jones | 22 | 101 | 4.6 | 1 |
| Leon Washington | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Brett Favre | 3 | 2 | 0.7 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chad Pennington | 26/43 | 251 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Williams | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
6.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.9%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.93