Closing spread
PHI -8
Total
44
Model margin
+5.0est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Eagles
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–5 since 1999
Meetings average 47.8 points. PHI are 12-4-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–PHI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 65 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| LA | Q1 12:16 | 7 | 25 | Punt | 0–7 |
| PHI | Q1 8:13 | 11 | 82 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| LA | Q1 1:53 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q1 0:48 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 14:47 | 7 | 26 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q2 10:28 | 4 | 51 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 8:09 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q2 5:58 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 0–14 |
| LA | Q2 4:18 | 6 | 20 | Punt | 0–14 |
| PHI | Q2 1:41 | 3 | 92 | Touchdown | 0–21 |
| LA | Q2 0:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PHI | Q2 0:16 | 4 | 23 | End of half | 0–21 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PHI | Q3 12:47 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–21 |
| LA | Q3 11:22 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–21 |
| PHI | Q3 10:28 | 9 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–28 |
| LA | Q3 5:45 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 0–28 |
| PHI | Q3 3:26 | 3 | 9 | Field goal | 0–31 |
| LA | Q3 2:29 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–31 |
| PHI | Q3 0:57 | 8 | 56 | Touchdown | 0–38 |
| LA | Q4 12:06 | 5 | 57 | Field goal | 3–38 |
| PHI | Q4 9:00 | 12 | 64 | End of half | 3–38 |
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan McNabb | 21/33 | 361 | 3 | 0 |
| Kevin Kolb | 5/6 | 53 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Westbrook | 19 | 91 | 4.8 | 1 |
| Lorenzo Booker | 5 | 9 | 1.8 | 0 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Donovan McNabb | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Hunt | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 1 |
| Kevin Kolb | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
2.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.5%
Expected total
42.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.56
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.05
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.