2008 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
NO -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.120
- 43.2%Success rate48.7%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.84CPOE+2.69
- 38.9%Third-down rate49.2%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
- 1.55Points / drive2.42
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | TB–NO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 81 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| TB | Q1 11:27 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 0–7 |
| NO | Q1 10:05 | 4 | 16 | Opp touchdown | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 8:13 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q1 7:04 | 5 | 17 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q1 4:53 | 5 | 28 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q1 1:50 | 5 | 20 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 14:16 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 12:20 | 7 | 39 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 8:15 | 7 | 30 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 4:57 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–7 |
| NO | Q2 3:17 | 5 | 19 | Punt | 7–7 |
| TB | Q2 1:28 | 5 | 61 | Field goal | 10–7 |
| NO | Q2 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 10–7 |
| TB | Q3 15:00 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NO | Q3 13:06 | 6 | 11 | Punt | 10–7 |
| TB | Q3 9:55 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 10–7 |
| NO | Q3 8:13 | 10 | 70 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| TB | Q3 2:49 | 4 | 51 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| NO | Q3 0:33 | 1 | 84 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| TB | Q3 0:13 | 11 | 73 | Touchdown | 20–17 |
| NO | Q4 10:38 | 5 | 80 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| TB | Q4 7:38 | 8 | 30 | Punt | 20–24 |
| NO | Q4 4:40 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 20–24 |
| TB | Q4 2:24 | 7 | 27 | Turnover | 20–24 |
| NO | Q4 0:38 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 24/41 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 10 | 91 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/32 | 343 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86