2008 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Louisiana Superdome · dome · fieldturf
Closing spread
NO -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+3.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play+0.120
- 43.2%Success rate48.7%
- +0.028EPA / dropback+0.213
- -0.126EPA / rush-0.043
- 7.5%Explosive rate9.2%
- +1.84CPOE+2.69
- 38.9%Third-down rate49.2%
- 48.9%Red-zone TD rate65.5%
- 1.55Points / drive2.42
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Garcia | 24/41 | 221 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 10 | 91 | 9.1 | 0 |
| Warrick Dunn | 9 | 54 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Jeff Garcia | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 23/32 | 343 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Thomas | 10 | 52 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 3 | -2 | -0.7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
7.51%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.4%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.37
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.86