2008 · Week 1 · Division
Final
Giants Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 85°F · wind 10mph
Closing spread
NYG -4.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+3.4est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.032EPA / play+0.093
- 42.3%Success rate47.3%
- +0.004EPA / dropback+0.129
- -0.080EPA / rush+0.050
- 7.5%Explosive rate10.1%
- -1.49CPOE+0.84
- 36.0%Third-down rate43.7%
- 55.0%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 1.37Points / drive2.09
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Campbell | 15/27 | 133 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clinton Portis | 23 | 84 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ladell Betts | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 19/35 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jacobs | 21 | 116 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Derrick Ward | 9 | 39 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Eli Manning | 2 | -1 | -0.5 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.2%
Expected total
42.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.91
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.39