2008 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 8mph
Closing spread
TB -7
Total
37.5
Model margin
-0.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.066EPA / play-0.033
- 43.0%Success rate43.2%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.028
- -0.021EPA / rush-0.126
- 10.9%Explosive rate7.5%
- +0.99CPOE+1.84
- 43.3%Third-down rate38.9%
- 55.2%Red-zone TD rate48.9%
- 2.04Points / drive1.55
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 13/33 | 158 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 14 | 42 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Harry Douglas | 1 | 33 | 33.0 | 0 |
| Jerious Norwood | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 6 | 10 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Griese | 18/31 | 160 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnest Graham | 15 | 116 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Warrick Dunn | 12 | 49 | 4.1 | 1 |
| Brian Griese | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
4.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.66
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.23
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.08