2022 · Week 5 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass
Closing spread
TB -10.5
Total
46
Model margin
+2.2est.
TB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.002EPA / play-0.030
- 45.4%Success rate44.0%
- -0.001EPA / dropback+0.052
- +0.004EPA / rush-0.208
- 9.6%Explosive rate6.5%
- -0.74CPOE+0.30
- 41.9%Third-down rate38.1%
- 60.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.97Points / drive1.63
- 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 25–25 since 1999
Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 14/25 | 147 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcus Mariota | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 0 |
| Tyler Allgeier | 13 | 45 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Caleb Huntley | 8 | 34 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 3 | 11 | 3.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Olamide Zaccheaus | 2 | 4 | 39 | 1 |
| Drake London | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| KhaDarel Hodge | 3 | 5 | 33 | 0 |
| Anthony Firkser | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Bryan Edwards | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Avery Williams | 2 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Parker Hesse | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Damiere Byrd | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Feleipe Franks | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Brady | 35/52 | 351 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 14 | 56 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Rachaad White | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Tom Brady | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 10 | 11 | 83 | 1 |
| Mike Evans | 4 | 8 | 81 | 0 |
| Chris Godwin Jr. | 6 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Cade Otton | 6 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Scott Miller | 4 | 7 | 35 | 0 |
| Rachaad White | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Russell Gage | 2 | 6 | 20 | 0 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
1.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.21