2022 · Week 5 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Marcus Mariota

15·21

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Tom Brady

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass

Closing spread

TB -10.5

Total

46

Model margin

+2.2est.

TB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.002EPA / play-0.030
  • 45.4%Success rate44.0%
  • -0.001EPA / dropback+0.052
  • +0.004EPA / rush-0.208
  • 9.6%Explosive rate6.5%
  • -0.74CPOE+0.30
  • 41.9%Third-down rate38.1%
  • 60.2%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.63
  • 1.8%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 25–25 since 1999

Meetings average 47.2 points. TB are 27-21-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15ATL @ TB29–28ATL
2025 · W1TB @ ATL23–20TB
2024 · W8ATL @ TB31–26ATL
2024 · W5TB @ ATL30–36ATL
2023 · W14TB @ ATL29–25TB
2023 · W7ATL @ TB16–13ATL
2022 · W18TB @ ATL17–30ATL
2021 · W13TB @ ATL30–17TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–TB
TBQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
ATLQ1 13:2870Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:431162Turnover on downs0–0
ATLQ1 4:52946Punt0–0
TBQ2 14:521498Touchdown0–7
ATLQ2 9:31824Punt0–7
TBQ2 5:431289Field goal0–10
ATLQ2 1:18519Missed field goal0–10
TBQ2 0:20332Field goal0–13
ATLQ3 15:00828Punt0–13
TBQ3 10:281174Touchdown0–21
ATLQ3 6:09423Punt0–21
TBQ3 3:2536Punt0–21
ATLQ3 1:43638Touchdown7–21
TBQ4 13:3936Punt7–21
ATLQ4 12:57618Punt7–21
TBQ4 10:2533Punt7–21
ATLQ4 9:491265Touchdown15–21
TBQ4 4:381037End of half15–21

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Marcus Mariota14/2514710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marcus Mariota7618.70
Tyler Allgeier13453.50
Caleb Huntley8344.30
Avery Williams3113.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Olamide Zaccheaus24391
Drake London47350
KhaDarel Hodge35330
Anthony Firkser11110
Bryan Edwards11100
Avery Williams22100
Parker Hesse1190
Damiere Byrd0100
Feleipe Franks0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tom Brady35/5235110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Leonard Fournette14564.01
Rachaad White5142.80
Chris Godwin Jr.122.00
Tom Brady3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Leonard Fournette1011831
Mike Evans48810
Chris Godwin Jr.66610
Cade Otton67430
Scott Miller47350
Rachaad White34280
Russell Gage26200
Kyle Rudolph0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +10.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

1.40%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

43.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.50
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.21