Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
37.5
Model margin
+4.6est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.095EPA / play+0.066
- 39.3%Success rate42.5%
- -0.083EPA / dropback+0.073
- -0.111EPA / rush+0.059
- 7.2%Explosive rate11.3%
- -3.00CPOE-1.27
- 35.1%Third-down rate40.0%
- 59.3%Red-zone TD rate66.7%
- 1.70Points / drive1.98
- 2.3%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Orton | 19/32 | 149 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 23 | 92 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Rashied Davis | 1 | 17 | 17.0 | 0 |
| Jason McKie | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 1 |
| Kevin Jones | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Kyle Orton | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Delhomme | 12/21 | 128 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 77 | 5.5 | 2 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 31 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jake Delhomme | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Nick Goings | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
7.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.3%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.61