2020 · Week 6

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Nick Foles

23·16

Panthers

Carolina

QB Teddy Bridgewater

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 63°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

CAR -2

Total

45

Model margin

+3.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.016EPA / play+0.019
  • 44.0%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.014EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.073EPA / rush-0.082
  • 7.5%Explosive rate8.9%
  • +1.28CPOE+2.88
  • 34.8%Third-down rate39.5%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
  • 1.97Points / drive2.21
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI
2010 · W5CHI @ CAR23–6CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CAR
CARQ1 15:003-9Turnover0–0
CHIQ1 13:16312Touchdown7–0
CARQ1 11:401372Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 5:07634Punt7–3
CARQ1 1:1531Punt7–3
CHIQ2 14:071048Field goal10–3
CARQ2 8:091361Field goal10–6
CHIQ2 2:00833Field goal13–6
CARQ2 0:0200End of half13–6
CHIQ3 15:0077Punt13–6
CARQ3 12:23423Turnover13–6
CHIQ3 10:1310Turnover13–6
CARQ3 10:06649Missed field goal13–6
CHIQ3 6:131056Touchdown20–6
CARQ3 1:441326Touchdown20–13
CHIQ4 13:11949Field goal23–13
CARQ4 9:19435Field goal23–16
CHIQ4 7:46518Punt23–16
CARQ4 5:12845Turnover on downs23–16
CHIQ4 1:5538Punt23–16
CARQ4 1:3210Turnover23–16
CHIQ4 1:2800End of half23–16

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Nick Foles23/3919811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
David Montgomery19583.10
Nick Foles540.81
Cordarrelle Patterson111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Allen Robinson59530
David Montgomery45390
Darnell Mooney35360
Jimmy Graham58340
Cole Kmet22201
Cordarrelle Patterson1180
Anthony Miller3380
Demetrius Harris0300

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater16/2921602

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mike Davis18522.91
Teddy Bridgewater8486.00
Trenton Cannon3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore511930
Robbie Chosen45770
Trenton Cannon22150
Keith Kirkwood12130
Ian Thomas1190
Chris Manhertz1260
Mike Davis2330
Alex Armah0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +23.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.7%

Expected total

45.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+3.54
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+3.24