Closing spread
CAR -2
Total
45
Model margin
+3.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.016EPA / play+0.019
- 44.0%Success rate45.8%
- +0.014EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.073EPA / rush-0.082
- 7.5%Explosive rate8.9%
- +1.28CPOE+2.88
- 34.8%Third-down rate39.5%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate58.0%
- 1.97Points / drive2.21
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Foles | 23/39 | 198 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| David Montgomery | 19 | 58 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Nick Foles | 5 | 4 | 0.8 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Allen Robinson | 5 | 9 | 53 | 0 |
| David Montgomery | 4 | 5 | 39 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 3 | 5 | 36 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 5 | 8 | 34 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 2 | 20 | 1 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Anthony Miller | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Demetrius Harris | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 16/29 | 216 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Davis | 18 | 52 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 8 | 48 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 11 | 93 | 0 |
| Robbie Chosen | 4 | 5 | 77 | 0 |
| Trenton Cannon | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Keith Kirkwood | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Ian Thomas | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Alex Armah | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
45.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.77
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+3.54
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+3.24