2012 · Week 8

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

22·23

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 49°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

CHI -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBears
  • +0.081EPA / play-0.041
  • 44.9%Success rate39.6%
  • +0.158EPA / dropback+0.005
  • -0.026EPA / rush-0.104
  • 11.0%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.55CPOE-0.76
  • 42.2%Third-down rate36.4%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.47
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI
2010 · W5CHI @ CAR23–6CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CHI
CARQ1 15:00629Punt0–0
CHIQ1 11:55517Turnover0–0
CARQ1 9:3869Punt0–0
CHIQ1 6:24449Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 4:32574Field goal3–7
CHIQ1 2:013-27Turnover3–7
CARQ1 0:33315Touchdown10–7
CHIQ2 14:453-1Punt10–7
CARQ2 12:551753Field goal13–7
CHIQ2 4:36817Punt13–7
CARQ2 2:21940Turnover13–7
CHIQ2 0:383-6Turnover13–7
CARQ2 0:0826End of half13–7
CHIQ3 15:0038Punt13–7
CARQ3 13:191280Field goal16–7
CHIQ3 6:4734Punt16–7
CARQ3 5:32763Field goal19–7
CHIQ3 1:30756Missed field goal19–7
CARQ4 12:0939Punt19–7
CHIQ4 10:18738Touchdown19–14
CARQ4 6:5210Opp touchdown19–20
CARQ4 6:441138Field goal22–20
CHIQ4 2:27855Field goal22–23

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton20/3931402

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart17422.50
Cam Newton5377.40
DeAngelo Williams11333.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith7161180
Brandon LaFell34880
Jonathan Stewart46380
Ben Hartsock11250
Greg Olsen35230
Gary Barnidge1170
Louis Murphy0400

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler19/2818611

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte15704.71
Michael Bush351.70
Jay Cutler144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall914980
Earl Bennett34470
Matt Forte55240
Kellen Davis11121
Devin Hester1250
Matt Spaeth0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.7%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.10