Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.081EPA / play-0.041
- 44.9%Success rate39.6%
- +0.158EPA / dropback+0.005
- -0.026EPA / rush-0.104
- 11.0%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.55CPOE-0.76
- 42.2%Third-down rate36.4%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate60.1%
- 1.90Points / drive1.47
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 20/39 | 314 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 17 | 42 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 5 | 37 | 7.4 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 11 | 33 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 7 | 16 | 118 | 0 |
| Brandon LaFell | 3 | 4 | 88 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 6 | 38 | 0 |
| Ben Hartsock | 1 | 1 | 25 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Louis Murphy | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/28 | 186 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 15 | 70 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Michael Bush | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 9 | 14 | 98 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 3 | 4 | 47 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 5 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 1 | 1 | 12 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.7%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.10