Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
38
Model margin
+4.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.160EPA / play-0.052
- 38.2%Success rate41.6%
- -0.163EPA / dropback-0.057
- -0.155EPA / rush-0.045
- 6.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -1.80CPOE+0.01
- 34.8%Third-down rate41.7%
- 42.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
- 1.00Points / drive1.72
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 21/38 | 185 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 2 | 7 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | -5 | -2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Strachan | 1 | 2 | 45 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 6 | 10 | 42 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 3 | 7 | 20 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 2 | 15 | 0 |
| Hayden Hurst | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Terrace Marshall Jr. | 1 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Raheem Blackshear | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Bagent | 20/33 | 162 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Onta Foreman | 21 | 80 | 3.8 | 1 |
| Roschon Johnson | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Tyson Bagent | 6 | 12 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| DJ Moore | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 9 | 58 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Tyler Scott | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Darnell Mooney | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| D'Onta Foreman | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Equanimeous St. Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Darrynton Evans | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.50%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
59.9%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment-0.55
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.06