2023 · Week 10

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

13·16

Bears

Chicago

QB Tyson Bagent

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

38

Model margin

+4.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBears
  • -0.160EPA / play-0.052
  • 38.2%Success rate41.6%
  • -0.163EPA / dropback-0.057
  • -0.155EPA / rush-0.045
  • 6.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -1.80CPOE+0.01
  • 34.8%Third-down rate41.7%
  • 42.3%Red-zone TD rate62.5%
  • 1.00Points / drive1.72
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI
2010 · W5CHI @ CAR23–6CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CHI
CHIQ1 15:00418Punt0–0
CARQ1 13:22927Punt0–0
CHIQ1 9:07621Opp touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 5:46744Field goal7–3
CARQ1 2:29760Field goal10–3
CHIQ2 13:33832Punt10–3
CARQ2 9:183-6Punt10–3
CHIQ2 8:191035Field goal10–6
CARQ2 3:06616Punt10–6
CHIQ2 1:12855Field goal10–9
CARQ3 15:0031Punt10–9
CHIQ3 13:5732Punt10–9
CARQ3 12:273-5Punt10–9
CHIQ3 10:29938Touchdown10–16
CARQ3 6:33635Punt10–16
CHIQ3 4:26613Punt10–16
CARQ3 0:48935Field goal13–16
CHIQ4 11:06731Punt13–16
CARQ4 7:101450Missed field goal13–16
CHIQ4 1:35311End of half13–16

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young21/3818500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard9232.60
Bryce Young3186.00
Raheem Blackshear273.50
Miles Sanders2-5-2.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Strachan12450
Adam Thielen610420
Jonathan Mingo37200
Chuba Hubbard22160
Tommy Tremble33160
Miles Sanders22150
Hayden Hurst24140
Terrace Marshall Jr.13110
Raheem Blackshear1160

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tyson Bagent20/3316200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Onta Foreman21803.81
Roschon Johnson5183.60
Tyler Scott11616.00
Tyson Bagent6122.00
Darrynton Evans252.50
DJ Moore111.00
Cole Kmet111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore59580
Cole Kmet57450
Tyler Scott11150
Darnell Mooney24140
Roschon Johnson46140
D'Onta Foreman22120
Equanimeous St. Brown1140
Darrynton Evans0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.7%6.7%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.50%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

59.9%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.90
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.55
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.06