2024 · Week 5

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Andy Dalton

10·36

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CHI -4

Total

40

Model margin

+2.4est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBears
  • -0.040EPA / play-0.072
  • 41.8%Success rate40.1%
  • -0.041EPA / dropback-0.036
  • -0.040EPA / rush-0.142
  • 7.5%Explosive rate5.9%
  • +0.06CPOE-0.22
  • 36.3%Third-down rate33.1%
  • 63.0%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI
2010 · W5CHI @ CAR23–6CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CHI
CARQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:213-5Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:39551Touchdown7–0
CHIQ1 8:54770Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 5:44510Punt7–7
CHIQ1 2:111482Touchdown7–14
CARQ2 10:4435Punt7–14
CHIQ2 8:20936Turnover on downs7–14
CARQ2 4:1835Turnover7–14
CHIQ2 2:49344Touchdown7–21
CARQ2 2:14620Turnover on downs7–21
CHIQ2 0:55562Touchdown7–27
CARQ2 0:24343Missed field goal7–27
CHIQ3 15:00416Punt7–27
CARQ3 12:1321Turnover7–27
CHIQ3 11:021165Field goal7–30
CARQ3 6:251048Field goal10–30
CHIQ3 2:10313Punt10–30
CARQ3 0:32530Punt10–30
CHIQ4 12:02532Punt10–30
CARQ4 8:46510Turnover10–30
CHIQ4 7:30613Touchdown10–36
CARQ4 4:23964Turnover on downs10–36
CHIQ4 1:5600End of half10–36

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton18/2813601
Bryce Young4/75800

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard13977.51
Bryce Young188.00
Diontae Johnson263.00
Miles Sanders263.00
Andy Dalton133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker44680
Jonathan Mingo25370
Miles Sanders23270
Diontae Johnson36230
David Moore23130
Ja'Tavion Sanders35130
Xavier Legette1180
Tommy Tremble1270
Chuba Hubbard44-20

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams20/2930420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift21733.51
Caleb Williams5346.80
Roschon Johnson10252.52
Tyson Bagent3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DJ Moore581052
Cole Kmet34570
D'Andre Swift22470
Rome Odunze56400
Keenan Allen36330
Gerald Everett22220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +44.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.6%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.53%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.27
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.41