Closing spread
CHI -4
Total
40
Model margin
+2.4est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.040EPA / play-0.072
- 41.8%Success rate40.1%
- -0.041EPA / dropback-0.036
- -0.040EPA / rush-0.142
- 7.5%Explosive rate5.9%
- +0.06CPOE-0.22
- 36.3%Third-down rate33.1%
- 63.0%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.88Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 18/28 | 136 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | 4/7 | 58 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 13 | 97 | 7.5 | 1 |
| Bryce Young | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 4 | 4 | 68 | 0 |
| Jonathan Mingo | 2 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Miles Sanders | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Diontae Johnson | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| David Moore | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Ja'Tavion Sanders | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 4 | 4 | -2 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 20/29 | 304 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 21 | 73 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 5 | 34 | 6.8 | 0 |
| Roschon Johnson | 10 | 25 | 2.5 | 2 |
| Tyson Bagent | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJ Moore | 5 | 8 | 105 | 2 |
| Cole Kmet | 3 | 4 | 57 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 2 | 2 | 47 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 5 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Keenan Allen | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| Gerald Everett | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.53%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment+0.27
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.41