2014 · Week 5

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

24·31

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

CAR -1.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.5est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPanthers
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.007
  • 44.2%Success rate44.6%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback+0.059
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.104
  • 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
  • -0.14CPOE-1.27
  • 38.4%Third-down rate41.1%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.63
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI
2010 · W5CHI @ CAR23–6CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CAR
CARQ1 15:00417Punt0–0
CHIQ1 13:1838Opp touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 10:56844Turnover0–7
CARQ1 6:16320Turnover0–7
CHIQ1 5:18328Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 4:313-2Turnover7–7
CHIQ1 3:34313Touchdown14–7
CARQ1 2:1333Punt14–7
CHIQ1 1:11978Touchdown21–7
CARQ2 10:511255Turnover21–7
CHIQ2 4:44665Missed field goal21–7
CARQ2 1:51775Touchdown21–14
CHIQ2 0:1200End of half21–14
CHIQ3 15:00622Punt21–14
CARQ3 11:161174Touchdown21–21
CHIQ3 7:16758Field goal24–21
CARQ3 2:38538Punt24–21
CHIQ4 14:5338Punt24–21
CARQ4 12:4038Punt24–21
CHIQ4 11:1759Punt24–21
CARQ4 8:3947Punt24–21
CHIQ4 6:442-1Turnover24–21
CARQ4 5:5636Field goal24–24
CHIQ4 4:2913Turnover24–24
CARQ4 4:18623Touchdown24–31
CHIQ4 2:18713Turnover24–31
CARQ4 1:0600End of half24–31

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler28/3628922

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17613.60
Jay Cutler3227.31
Ka'Deem Carey221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte12121051
Alshon Jeffery67971
Brandon Marshall35440
Dante Rosario34200
Martellus Bennett35170
Santonio Holmes1360

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton19/3525521

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Darrin Reaves10363.60
Chris Ogbonnaya8243.01
Corey Brown22211.00
Cam Newton691.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen69722
Jerricho Cotchery34460
Jason Avant24420
Kelvin Benjamin311380
Brenton Bersin11210
Ed Dickson22160
Darrin Reaves11160
Corey Brown1140
Brandon Williams0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +1.53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

2.04%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.1%

Expected total

45.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.98
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.47