Closing spread
CAR -1.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.5est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.007
- 44.2%Success rate44.6%
- -0.032EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.104
- 7.1%Explosive rate8.5%
- -0.14CPOE-1.27
- 38.4%Third-down rate41.1%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.62Points / drive1.63
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 28/36 | 289 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 61 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 22 | 7.3 | 1 |
| Ka'Deem Carey | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 12 | 12 | 105 | 1 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 6 | 7 | 97 | 1 |
| Brandon Marshall | 3 | 5 | 44 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 3 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Martellus Bennett | 3 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Santonio Holmes | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 19/35 | 255 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrin Reaves | 10 | 36 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Ogbonnaya | 8 | 24 | 3.0 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 6 | 9 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 6 | 9 | 72 | 2 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 4 | 46 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 11 | 38 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Darrin Reaves | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Brandon Williams | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
2.04%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.1%
Expected total
45.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.98
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.47