2017 · Week 7

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

3·17

Bears

Chicago

QB Mitch Trubisky

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 70°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

Total

39.5

Model margin

+0.6est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBears
  • -0.018EPA / play-0.112
  • 41.3%Success rate38.5%
  • +0.040EPA / dropback-0.099
  • -0.096EPA / rush-0.130
  • 8.9%Explosive rate7.7%
  • -2.85CPOE-3.10
  • 43.2%Third-down rate34.8%
  • 55.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
  • 1.87Points / drive1.22
  • 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI
2010 · W5CHI @ CAR23–6CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CHI
CARQ1 15:00951Opp touchdown0–7
CARQ1 8:593-6Punt0–7
CHIQ1 7:4637Punt0–7
CARQ1 6:083-6Punt0–7
CHIQ1 3:48834Missed field goal0–7
CARQ2 14:55625Opp touchdown0–14
CARQ2 12:281556Field goal3–14
CHIQ2 3:18474Field goal3–17
CARQ2 1:10568End of half3–17
CHIQ3 15:0031Punt3–17
CARQ3 13:381152Turnover on downs3–17
CHIQ3 6:4835Punt3–17
CARQ3 4:581147Punt3–17
CHIQ4 13:2130Punt3–17
CARQ4 11:1738Punt3–17
CHIQ4 9:4235Punt3–17
CARQ4 7:2630Turnover3–17
CHIQ4 7:0747Punt3–17
CARQ4 4:293-2Punt3–17
CHIQ4 3:36425End of half3–17

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton21/3421102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton9505.60
Jonathan Stewart14483.40
Christian McCaffrey7101.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin36650
Devin Funchess48410
Christian McCaffrey79360
Russell Shepard23200
Curtis Samuel11200
Ed Dickson35180
Chris Manhertz12110

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mitchell Trubisky4/710700

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Howard21653.10
Mitchell Trubisky530.60

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tarik Cohen13700
Zach Miller23290
Tanner Gentry1180

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.10%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.6%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin+0.58