Closing spread
CAR -2.5
Total
39.5
Model margin
+0.6est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Bears
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.018EPA / play-0.112
- 41.3%Success rate38.5%
- +0.040EPA / dropback-0.099
- -0.096EPA / rush-0.130
- 8.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- -2.85CPOE-3.10
- 43.2%Third-down rate34.8%
- 55.8%Red-zone TD rate61.2%
- 1.87Points / drive1.22
- 2.0%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/34 | 211 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 9 | 50 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 48 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 10 | 1.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 3 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 4 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Christian McCaffrey | 7 | 9 | 36 | 0 |
| Russell Shepard | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Curtis Samuel | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Chris Manhertz | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitchell Trubisky | 4/7 | 107 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Howard | 21 | 65 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Mitchell Trubisky | 5 | 3 | 0.6 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Cohen | 1 | 3 | 70 | 0 |
| Zach Miller | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Tanner Gentry | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.6%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.92
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin+0.58