Closing spread
CHI -7
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
CHI perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bears
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.102EPA / play-0.110
- 44.8%Success rate39.3%
- +0.093EPA / dropback-0.105
- +0.115EPA / rush-0.117
- 12.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- -0.04CPOE-2.53
- 38.7%Third-down rate32.9%
- 64.4%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
- 2.08Points / drive1.37
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 27/46 | 374 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 82 | 8.2 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 8 | 52 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 8 | 35 | 4.4 | 2 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 8 | 10 | 181 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 5 | 7 | 50 | 1 |
| Brandon LaFell | 4 | 6 | 42 | 0 |
| Jeremy Shockey | 2 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Legedu Naanee | 4 | 11 | 27 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 9/17 | 102 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 25 | 205 | 8.2 | 1 |
| Marion Barber | 5 | 17 | 3.4 | 1 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johnny Knox | 3 | 4 | 48 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 4 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Roy Williams | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Devin Hester | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
4.69%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.07