2011 · Week 4

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

29·34

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

Soldier Field · outdoors · grass · 60°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CHI -7

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

CHI perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Bears

Win probability

  • Bears
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Bears winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBears
  • +0.102EPA / play-0.110
  • 44.8%Success rate39.3%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback-0.105
  • +0.115EPA / rush-0.117
  • 12.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • -0.04CPOE-2.53
  • 38.7%Third-down rate32.9%
  • 64.4%Red-zone TD rate62.0%
  • 2.08Points / drive1.37
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CHI are 6-5-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1CHI @ CAR59–37CHI
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2010 · W5CHI @ CAR23–6CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–CHI
CARQ1 15:001085Field goal3–0
CHIQ1 9:34878Field goal3–3
CARQ1 4:1932Opp touchdown3–10
CARQ1 3:20780Touchdown10–10
CHIQ2 14:55336Touchdown10–17
CARQ2 13:2435Opp touchdown10–24
CARQ2 11:32872Touchdown17–24
CHIQ2 6:29727Punt17–24
CARQ2 2:32655Field goal20–24
CHIQ2 0:0600End of half20–24
CHIQ3 15:00737Punt20–24
CARQ3 11:341181Missed field goal20–24
CHIQ3 5:00620Punt20–24
CARQ3 2:31658Field goal23–24
CHIQ4 14:5520Turnover23–24
CARQ4 14:0740Missed field goal23–24
CHIQ4 13:231152Field goal23–27
CARQ4 6:4135Punt23–27
CHIQ4 5:06424Punt23–27
CARQ4 3:18623Turnover on downs23–27
CHIQ4 1:48343Touchdown23–34
CARQ4 1:23777Touchdown29–34
CHIQ4 0:0400End of half29–34

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton27/4637411

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams10828.20
Jonathan Stewart8526.50
Cam Newton8354.42

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith8101810
Greg Olsen57501
Brandon LaFell46420
Jeremy Shockey25410
Jonathan Stewart44330
Legedu Naanee411270
DeAngelo Williams0100

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler9/1710201

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte252058.21
Marion Barber5173.41
Jay Cutler122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Johnny Knox34480
Matt Forte45230
Dane Sanzenbacher12160
Roy Williams11150
Sam Hurd0200
Devin Hester0200
Kellen Davis0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.1%2.7%7.1%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Bears; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

4.69%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.42
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.07