Closing spread
CHI -3
Total
47.5
Model margin
-11.2est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
6.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.361EPA / play+0.130
- 53.3%Success rate47.1%
- +0.551EPA / dropback+0.242
- +0.143EPA / rush-0.106
- 12.0%Explosive rate11.8%
- +16.58CPOE+4.17
- 71.4%Third-down rate44.4%
- 100.0%Red-zone TD rate100.0%
- 4.19Points / drive2.90
- 1.3%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CHI lead 9–4 since 1999
CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caleb Williams | 21/29 | 269 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift | 18 | 124 | 6.9 | 3 |
| Kyle Monangai | 10 | 100 | 10.0 | 1 |
| Caleb Williams | 10 | 65 | 6.5 | 2 |
| Luther Burden III | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalif Raymond | 8 | 9 | 84 | 0 |
| Luther Burden III | 5 | 5 | 63 | 0 |
| Rome Odunze | 2 | 3 | 52 | 0 |
| Cole Kmet | 2 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
| Kyle Monangai | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| D'Andre Swift | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jahdae Walker | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Colston Loveland | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Young | 23/37 | 361 | 3 | 1 |
| Kenny Pickett | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chuba Hubbard | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 1 |
| AJ Dillon | 5 | 28 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Kenny Pickett | 1 | 24 | 24.0 | 0 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Bryce Young | 2 | 10 | 5.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Coker | 8 | 9 | 138 | 2 |
| Tetairoa McMillan | 5 | 8 | 75 | 0 |
| Jonathon Brooks | 1 | 2 | 48 | 0 |
| Chuba Hubbard | 3 | 3 | 38 | 1 |
| Darren Waller | 2 | 2 | 28 | 0 |
| Tommy Tremble | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Mitchell Evans | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Xavier Legette | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Horn Jr. | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
6.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
21.6%
Expected total
58.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-13.42
- Home-field advantage+2.22
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-11.20