2026 · Week 1

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Caleb Williams

59·37

Panthers

Carolina

QB Bryce Young

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 89°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

CHI -3

Total

47.5

Model margin

+1.2est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

7.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.052EPA / play+0.019
  • 47.0%Success rate41.9%
  • +0.154EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.082EPA / rush-0.084
  • 9.6%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +5.30CPOE-0.58
  • 44.6%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 51.9%Red-zone TD rate67.3%
  • 2.27Points / drive2.15
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CHI lead 9–4 since 1999

CHI have won 5 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. CAR are 5-6-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W5CAR @ CHI10–36CHI
2023 · W10CAR @ CHI13–16CHI
2020 · W6CHI @ CAR23–16CHI
2017 · W7CAR @ CHI3–17CHI
2014 · W5CHI @ CAR24–31CAR
2012 · W8CAR @ CHI22–23CHI
2011 · W4CAR @ CHI29–34CHI
2010 · W5CHI @ CAR23–6CHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–CAR
CHIQ1 15:00320Turnover0–0
CARQ1 13:56850Touchdown0–7
CHIQ1 11:331082Touchdown7–7
CARQ1 5:523-3Punt7–7
CHIQ1 4:12667Touchdown14–7
CARQ1 1:59311Punt14–7
CHIQ2 14:48241Touchdown21–7
CARQ2 13:57373Touchdown21–14
CHIQ2 12:4049Turnover on downs21–14
CARQ2 10:27524Touchdown21–21
CHIQ2 8:4235Punt21–21
CHIQ2 6:5636Field goal24–21
CARQ2 5:20753Field goal24–24
CHIQ2 2:35685Touchdown31–24
CARQ2 0:22211Turnover31–24
CHIQ2 0:0510End of half31–24
CARQ3 15:0035Punt31–24
CHIQ3 12:5931Punt31–24
CARQ3 11:28758Touchdown31–31
CHIQ3 9:021565Touchdown38–31
CARQ3 3:05626Turnover on downs44–31
CHIQ3 0:50161Touchdown45–31
CARQ3 0:40332Turnover45–31
CHIQ4 14:501466Touchdown52–31
CARQ4 6:271186Touchdown52–37
CHIQ4 4:00444Touchdown59–37
CARQ4 3:40752End of half59–37

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Caleb Williams21/2926920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
D'Andre Swift181246.93
Kyle Monangai1010010.01
Caleb Williams10656.52
Luther Burden III122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kalif Raymond89840
Luther Burden III55630
Rome Odunze23520
Cole Kmet23351
Kyle Monangai22240
D'Andre Swift11100
Jahdae Walker1111
Colston Loveland0200

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Bryce Young23/3736131
Kenny Pickett0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chuba Hubbard10494.91
AJ Dillon5285.60
Kenny Pickett12424.00
Jonathon Brooks4143.50
Bryce Young2105.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jalen Coker891382
Tetairoa McMillan58750
Jonathon Brooks12480
Chuba Hubbard33381
Darren Waller22280
Tommy Tremble35250
Mitchell Evans1290
Xavier Legette0200
Jimmy Horn Jr.0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -34.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

7.20%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.02
  • Home-field advantage+2.22
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+1.20