Closing spread
GB -3
Total
47
Model margin
-5.7est.
DET perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Lions
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.051EPA / play-0.162
- 43.8%Success rate36.3%
- +0.134EPA / dropback-0.203
- -0.072EPA / rush-0.092
- 8.3%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.24CPOE-3.61
- 44.1%Third-down rate28.7%
- 66.2%Red-zone TD rate72.0%
- 1.94Points / drive1.21
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 36–18 since 1999
GB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.9 points. DET are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/38 | 328 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Jackson | 7 | 61 | 8.7 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 4 | 25 | 6.3 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Kregg Lumpkin | 1 | 19 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Matt Flynn | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Lions
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jon Kitna | 21/41 | 276 | 2 | 3 |
| Dan Orlovsky | 2/4 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Smith | 10 | 40 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jon Kitna | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Rudi Johnson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Lions; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
7.40%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
34.0%
Expected total
46.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-6.52
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.77
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-5.73