Closing spread
IND -1
Total
43.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.114EPA / play-0.039
- 48.1%Success rate40.9%
- +0.230EPA / dropback+0.001
- -0.087EPA / rush-0.081
- 6.4%Explosive rate9.0%
- +4.76CPOE-2.18
- 50.8%Third-down rate39.7%
- 68.4%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
- 2.14Points / drive1.59
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. MIN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 26/42 | 311 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Addai | 15 | 20 | 1.3 | 1 |
| Dominic Rhodes | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 14/24 | 130 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 29 | 160 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 4 | 18 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Aundrae Allison | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.1%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.27
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.24