2008 · Week 2

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Peyton Manning

18·15

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Tarvaris Jackson

Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

IND -1

Total

43.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapVikings
  • +0.114EPA / play-0.039
  • 48.1%Success rate40.9%
  • +0.230EPA / dropback+0.001
  • -0.087EPA / rush-0.081
  • 6.4%Explosive rate9.0%
  • +4.76CPOE-2.18
  • 50.8%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 68.4%Red-zone TD rate53.5%
  • 2.14Points / drive1.59
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. MIN are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7IND @ MIN10–16MIN
2024 · W9IND @ MIN13–21MIN
2022 · W15IND @ MIN36–39MIN
2020 · W2MIN @ IND11–28IND
2016 · W15IND @ MIN34–6IND
2012 · W2MIN @ IND20–23IND
2004 · W9MIN @ IND28–31IND
2000 · W17MIN @ IND10–31IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIN
INDQ1 15:00520Turnover0–0
MINQ1 12:24531Field goal0–3
INDQ1 10:1032Punt0–3
MINQ1 8:35418Punt0–3
INDQ1 5:403-7Punt0–3
MINQ1 4:05743Field goal0–6
INDQ1 0:09940Punt0–6
MINQ2 10:37944Punt0–6
INDQ2 5:23716Punt0–6
MINQ2 2:2137Punt0–6
INDQ2 1:08514Punt0–6
MINQ2 0:21245Field goal0–9
MINQ3 15:00734Field goal0–12
INDQ3 10:38416Punt0–12
MINQ3 7:40736Field goal0–15
INDQ3 4:09680Touchdown7–15
MINQ3 1:242-6Turnover7–15
INDQ3 0:38416Missed field goal7–15
MINQ4 14:47513Punt7–15
INDQ4 12:27414Turnover7–15
MINQ4 10:30517Missed field goal7–15
INDQ4 7:09361Touchdown15–15
MINQ4 5:54415Punt15–15
INDQ4 4:11728Punt15–15
MINQ4 1:4232Punt15–15
INDQ4 1:07321Field goal18–15
MINQ4 0:0300End of half18–15

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning26/4231112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Addai15201.31
Dominic Rhodes252.50
Peyton Manning200.00

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tarvaris Jackson14/2413000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson291605.50
Chester Taylor4184.50
Tarvaris Jackson111.00
Aundrae Allison111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Chester Taylor11-20

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.1%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.27
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.24