2022 · Week 15

Final / OT

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Matt Ryan

36·39

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Kirk Cousins

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -3.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+3.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapVikings
  • -0.154EPA / play+0.004
  • 40.3%Success rate45.8%
  • -0.139EPA / dropback+0.070
  • -0.181EPA / rush-0.130
  • 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
  • -1.42CPOE+1.66
  • 33.3%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 45.5%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
  • 1.33Points / drive2.04
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. MIN are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7IND @ MIN10–16MIN
2024 · W9IND @ MIN13–21MIN
2020 · W2MIN @ IND11–28IND
2016 · W15IND @ MIN34–6IND
2012 · W2MIN @ IND20–23IND
2008 · W2IND @ MIN18–15IND
2004 · W9MIN @ IND28–31IND
2000 · W17MIN @ IND10–31IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIN
INDQ1 15:001044Field goal3–0
MINQ1 9:1144Opp touchdown10–0
MINQ1 8:12244Turnover10–0
INDQ1 7:20766Touchdown17–0
MINQ1 3:5154Turnover on downs17–0
INDQ1 1:10521Field goal20–0
MINQ2 13:0749Turnover on downs20–0
INDQ2 11:0130Field goal23–0
MINQ2 10:4132Punt23–0
INDQ2 8:58613Punt23–0
MINQ2 6:2939Opp touchdown30–0
MINQ2 5:50511Punt30–0
INDQ2 4:00865Field goal33–0
MINQ2 0:0800End of half33–0
MINQ3 15:003-8Punt33–0
INDQ3 13:57414Punt33–0
MINQ3 11:16773Touchdown33–7
INDQ3 8:22526Field goal36–7
MINQ3 4:53875Touchdown36–14
INDQ3 1:1333Punt36–14
MINQ3 0:07646Touchdown36–21
INDQ4 12:53415Punt36–21
MINQ4 10:26831Turnover36–21
INDQ4 8:0232Punt36–21
MINQ4 7:06637Touchdown36–28
INDQ4 5:30414Turnover36–28
MINQ4 3:25715Turnover on downs36–28
INDQ4 2:52520Turnover on downs36–34
MINQ4 2:28164Touchdown36–36
INDQ4 2:1539Punt36–36
MINQ4 1:1039Punt36–36
INDQ4 0:1300End of half36–36
MINOT1039Punt36–36
INDOT830Punt36–36
MINOT555Field goal36–39

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan19/3318210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Zack Moss24813.40
Deon Jackson13554.20
Michael Pittman23015.00
Ashton Dulin155.00
Matt Ryan300.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Pittman1014600
Jelani Woods11360
Kylen Granson22340
Ashton Dulin22250
Parris Campbell23130
Jonathan Taylor11130
Deon Jackson1111
Mo Alie-Cox0100
Zack Moss0100
Alec Pierce0500

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins34/5446042

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Dalvin Cook17955.60
Alexander Mattison210.50
Kirk Cousins200.00
Jalen Reagor1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
K.J. Osborn10161571
Justin Jefferson12161231
Dalvin Cook44951
Adam Thielen34411
T.J. Hockenson39330
Johnny Mundt1170
Jalen Reagor0200
Jalen Nailor0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.53.8%6.8%7.5%3.2%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

58.7%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
  • Home-field advantage+1.71
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+3.61