Closing spread
MIN -3.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+3.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.154EPA / play+0.004
- 40.3%Success rate45.8%
- -0.139EPA / dropback+0.070
- -0.181EPA / rush-0.130
- 7.4%Explosive rate8.0%
- -1.42CPOE+1.66
- 33.3%Third-down rate40.7%
- 45.5%Red-zone TD rate65.2%
- 1.33Points / drive2.04
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. MIN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 19/33 | 182 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Moss | 24 | 81 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 13 | 55 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Michael Pittman | 2 | 30 | 15.0 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 3 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Pittman | 10 | 14 | 60 | 0 |
| Jelani Woods | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Kylen Granson | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Ashton Dulin | 2 | 2 | 25 | 0 |
| Parris Campbell | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Taylor | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Deon Jackson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Mo Alie-Cox | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zack Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Alec Pierce | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 34/54 | 460 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dalvin Cook | 17 | 95 | 5.6 | 0 |
| Alexander Mattison | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 2 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| K.J. Osborn | 10 | 16 | 157 | 1 |
| Justin Jefferson | 12 | 16 | 123 | 1 |
| Dalvin Cook | 4 | 4 | 95 | 1 |
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 4 | 41 | 1 |
| T.J. Hockenson | 3 | 9 | 33 | 0 |
| Johnny Mundt | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Jalen Reagor | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jalen Nailor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
58.7%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.47
- Home-field advantage+1.71
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+3.61