Closing spread
MIN -5
Total
44.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
1.9%est.
Win probability
- Vikings
- Colts
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.045EPA / play-0.042
- 45.9%Success rate42.5%
- +0.127EPA / dropback+0.075
- -0.117EPA / rush-0.253
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.1%
- +1.05CPOE+3.80
- 42.8%Third-down rate38.4%
- 72.9%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
- 2.10Points / drive1.65
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
IND lead 6–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45.5 points. MIN are 2-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Colts
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew Luck | 21/28 | 250 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 26 | 101 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 7 | 32 | 4.6 | 2 |
| Jordan Todman | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Andrew Luck | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Josh Ferguson | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erik Swoope | 3 | 3 | 50 | 1 |
| Phillip Dorsett | 1 | 1 | 50 | 1 |
| T.Y. Hilton | 3 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Jack Doyle | 4 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Chester Rogers | 3 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 4 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Dwayne Allen | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 32/42 | 291 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 6 | 22 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Rudolph | 8 | 10 | 97 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 9 | 9 | 59 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 5 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 5 | 8 | 49 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Stefon Diggs | 2 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Adam Thielen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.
Half-point at risk
1.93%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+1.74
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.18