2016 · Week 15

Final

Colts

Indianapolis

QB Andrew Luck

34·6

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Sam Bradford

U.S. Bank Stadium · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

MIN -5

Total

44.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

1.9%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Colts

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Colts

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsColts wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Coltsedge mapVikings
  • +0.045EPA / play-0.042
  • 45.9%Success rate42.5%
  • +0.127EPA / dropback+0.075
  • -0.117EPA / rush-0.253
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.1%
  • +1.05CPOE+3.80
  • 42.8%Third-down rate38.4%
  • 72.9%Red-zone TD rate49.1%
  • 2.10Points / drive1.65
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.3%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

IND lead 6–3 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43.3 points. MIN are 2-7 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7IND @ MIN10–16MIN
2024 · W9IND @ MIN13–21MIN
2022 · W15IND @ MIN36–39MIN
2020 · W2MIN @ IND11–28IND
2012 · W2MIN @ IND20–23IND
2008 · W2IND @ MIN18–15IND
2004 · W9MIN @ IND28–31IND
2000 · W17MIN @ IND10–31IND

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultIND–MIN
INDQ1 15:001046Field goal3–0
MINQ1 9:0135Punt3–0
INDQ1 7:191150Touchdown10–0
MINQ1 2:22419Punt10–0
INDQ1 0:1038Punt10–0
MINQ2 14:0734Punt10–0
INDQ2 12:551087Touchdown17–0
MINQ2 7:16241Turnover17–0
INDQ2 6:081486Touchdown24–0
MINQ2 0:3310Turnover24–0
INDQ2 0:1914Field goal27–0
MINQ3 15:001045Turnover27–0
INDQ3 10:1538Punt27–0
MINQ3 8:011256Field goal27–3
INDQ3 3:51788Touchdown34–3
MINQ4 14:55839Field goal34–6
INDQ4 11:57618Punt34–6
MINQ4 7:46714Turnover on downs34–6
INDQ4 5:09516Turnover on downs34–6
MINQ4 2:00859End of half34–6

Box score

Individual performances

Colts

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andrew Luck21/2825020

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore261013.90
Robert Turbin7324.62
Jordan Todman4194.80
Andrew Luck188.00
Josh Ferguson210.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Erik Swoope33501
Phillip Dorsett11501
T.Y. Hilton37450
Jack Doyle44320
Chester Rogers35240
Robert Turbin22220
Frank Gore44140
Dwayne Allen12130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford32/4229101

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson6223.70
Jerick McKinnon3124.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kyle Rudolph810970
Jerick McKinnon99590
Charles D. Johnson55500
Cordarrelle Patterson58490
Matt Asiata11200
Stefon Diggs25130
Jarius Wright1220
Adrian Peterson1110
Adam Thielen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Colts.

Half-point at risk

1.93%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+1.74
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.18